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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.

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Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:

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The U.S. yield curve inversion suggests the next recession is about 18-24 months away. That recession could mark the start of a long period of stagflation like 1966-1980.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this long-term bond market chart.
Some gold analysts have noted the H&S top pattern in play, but it’s important to wait for a trend line break before getting too excited.
In the intermediate term, negative rates are the mover for all major markets.
Trump wants the U.S. central bank to “compete” with the ECB and the BOJ, and drive U.S. interest rates lower.
The H&S top on the T-bond chart could be voided by this policy. Horrifically, U.S. commercial banks are responding to the lower rates madness… by selling existing loans rather than issuing new ones. This is one of many recessionary catalysts now in play in America.
A new risk is that banks will go back to engaging in risky market speculation like they did with OTC derivatives in the runup to the 2008 crisis.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. It’s all win-win for gold; higher rates will crush the ability of governments to borrow money.
If they can’t borrow, they print, and they could start printing like Germany did in the 1920s.
Lower/negative rates create more incentive for governments to go deeper in debt and that creates institutional interest in gold.
The bottom line: Stagflation is coming, but not until the uptrend line on the long-term T-bond chart snaps.
What’s coming in the meantime could be negative rates in America and vastly more government debt. It’s obvious that Trump isn’t going to stop his crazed deficit spending and tariff tax implementation.
Please click here now. America’s President (who I sometimes refer to as “Super Tariff Tax Man”) wants to implement another blast of tariff taxes just as U.S. Christmas holiday shopping gets underway. That could be the catalyst that turns fading earnings negative for the SP500.
Is President Trump morphing into a tariff tax grinch that is poised to steal Christmas? Sadly, the answer seems to be: yes.
If he loses the 2020 election to the democrats, the potential for stagflation will continue to grow. The democrats have promised tax increases that could crush GDP growth and reduce demand for stock market buybacks and corporate bonds.
The coming recession will likely be mild under a Trump administration, at least initially. Under a democrat administration though, it could quickly morph into an inflationary depression that would be “fixed” with a gargantuan wealth tax.
The money from that wealth tax would soon be wasted by the government and debt would continue to rise.
The bottom line: U.S. government money printing appears imminent regardless of who wins the 2020 election.
Gold is the obvious winner, and likely the only winner, in all scenarios in the intermediate term, and it’s the biggest winner in the long term.
What about gold stocks? Well, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this gold stocks versus gold chart. A breakout from the immense bull wedge formation would likely signal the start of the first major bull market in gold stocks since the 1970s.
That breakout, and the bull market that occurs, would be enhanced by a failure of the trendline on the T-bond chart.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular silver chart. As good as this daily chart looks, the long-term charts are my main focus.
On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. In the 1970s bull run, my biggest holding was silver bullion. The stagflation theme made it the go-to asset.
Is history about to repeat? I think so. Note the excellent overall performance of silver against gold during the 1970s. Singapore dealers are suddenly reporting that investors are buying more silver than gold. My simple advice to investors in the West is: Join them and buy silver bullion now!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Silver Stocks Moonshot!” report. The only items with more upside right now than silver bullion are silver mining stocks. I highlight five of the best ones, with key buy and sell signals for each stock!

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Stewart Thomson

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A year ago, I predicted that any U.S. stock market sell-off would be accompanied by a dramatic surge in the price of GDX an GDXJ.
That’s exactly what happened; the stock market tanked and key gold stocks soared.
This year, I’m predicting that any major U.S. stock market crash will again be accompanied by the soaring price of the gold producers…
But I’m also predicting that most CDNX-listed junior explorers are set to soar too!
Please click here now. America’s top money printing cheerleader (President Trump) brags that his government essentially has the Chinese government cowering in a corner. He claims they are ready to throw in the white towel in the trade war. Reality check:
It’s obvious that major money managers are becoming very concerned about these tariff taxes.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this horrifying U.S. stock market chart.
On the one hand, private enterprise must be respected. Great companies exist and prosper in the socialist nations of Europe and in China. They will continue to prosper.
The drive of entrepreneurs must never be underestimated, even in the harshest conditions.
On the other hand, when governments unveil growth-negative policies like tariff taxes and money printing, stock markets can experience dramatic declines. These declines are usually temporary, but they are very painful.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this important gold stocks versus gold chart.
I call it the “Just buy” chart, because there really isn’t much else to do here except buy, buy, and buy!
That’s especially true for core position enthusiasts. Gold stocks are incredibly cheap compared to gold bullion.
Also, I believe investors can make the most money in the market buying when their analysis has gone awry. On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge my “Golden Beeline” chart.
Many gold analysts have tried to “top call” gold since the rally from about $1167 began. This has been a mistake and I believe it will continue to be a mistake in the months ahead.
A gargantuan bull continuation pattern is forming on the weekly gold chart. It’s an inverse H&S pattern with a potential neckline in the $2000 area.
This is not a time to sell gold or top call it. It’s a time to buy, sit back, and watch those positions fly! Here’s why:
Institutional money managers are adding gold to their portfolios. These are not highly leveraged hedge funds gambling on the COMEX.
They are unleveraged institutions. They are serious players who understand the destructive nature of the Trump tariff taxes. These taxes are being implemented as the business cycle peaks and with relentless ramp-up of U.S. government spending and debt.
This horrifying scenario has superstar managers like Ray Dalio predicting serious inflation and potential rioting in the streets.
Please click here now: Top money managers are concerned that stagflation is emerging as the Fed is forced to print money and cut rates to offset the taxes. They are not buying gold, silver, and the miners for a “quick flip”. This is long-term allocation.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GDX chart.
Profit-lock enthusiasts can buy a breakout over $30 and place a stoploss at $27.50. A move above $30 opens the door for a violent surge to $37-$39.
From there, core positions can be added on a pullback to about $30. Nervous investors can buy put options to manage their emotions, but everyone else should be in “Buy & Fly!” mode alongside the institutional money managers. Today’s Superman is a man of gold and looking at GDX today, I believe he would say… Up, up, and away!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Junior Rockets!” report. I highlight junior miners trading under $2/share that are beginning to soar, with key buy and sell prices for each stock.

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More powerful money managers are stepping forward to recommend gold in a negative real rates environment.
Please click here now. The focus of these elite money managers and analysts is mainly on bullion.
Many of the more speculative junior miners that trade on the CDNX have yet to participate in this gigantic rally, but that may indicate that the rally is only in the earliest stages.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily chart. Numerous bull flags have been forming on the charts for gold, silver, and ETFs like GDX and GOAU.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this USD vs Chinese yuan chart. It’s almost comical that since the US government launched a “trade war” against China in early 2018, the dollar has rallied relentlessly against the yuan.
Instead of working to reduce the dollar-yuan price, the American government has launched a tidal wave of tariff taxes. That has pushed the dollar higher.
This policy has increased the Chinese trade surplus with America and the US government’s silly response has been to threaten to impose even more tariff taxes on all Chinese exports to America.
Money managers are very concerned and flocking to gold!
In India it could be argued that the Modi government has essentially taken over the central bank and is forcing the bank to begin a long-term rate cutting policy. That policy is designed to reduce the growth-destructive actions of tariff taxes on gold and demonetization.
I believe the US government plans to follow the Indian populist government’s lead and take it to another level. I’m predicting that in the next downturn, QE and zero-level interest rates will not boost growth at all. The US government is simply too big and carries too much debt.
Roosevelt launched a socialist “New Deal” policy, purportedly to manage the negative effects of the Great Depression. A “New Deal 2.0” could involve the US government launching a new form of QE that involves student loans, credit card debt, and UBI (universal basic income).
Money would be printed but the central bank would be ordered to buy consumer debt with the money, in addition to buying government debt.
Gold would skyrocket but the stock market could also do well if the Fed follows the lead of the Swiss central bank and buys a lot of US stocks with some of the printed money.
This would sow the seeds of hyperinflation, but I don’t think it will become a real concern until the use of the dollar in global financial transactions falls under 40%. It’s still about 60%.
What about Jackson Hole? Well, from Thursday to Sunday the world’s central bankers gather there to discuss the global economy and markets. Could key statements from these power brokers trigger a significant reaction in gold?
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this monthly gold chart.
Fundamental news like tariff tax relief or positive statements from power brokers at Jackson Hole could cause a reaction from the $1500 resistance zone, but that’s a possibility and not a guarantee. Here’s why:
Central bankers are very concerned about the refusal of governments (especially the American government) to reduce their footprint in the global economy. This is likely why central banks continue to claim that 1% euro zone and 2% American GDP growth is “robust”. It’s not robust, but claiming it is allows the banks to make a case for not cutting rates or renewing QE.
The central bankers know that higher rates would incentivize commercial banks to lend and force debt-obsessed governments and citizens to reduce their debt loads. That would allow GDP growth to rise over the long-term in a sustained manner.
Unfortunately, most Western governments want lower rates so they can “borrow to infinity” while claiming that lower rates and QE are helping the common man.
Regardless, lower rates and QE are not going away and may soon become part of fiscal policy, targeting consumer debt. All roads obviously lead to gold!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. GDX has pulled back to some minor support. Is there cause for concern? I don’t think so. Money managers are excited but not greedy. That should instill confidence in all amateur gold stock investors.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. For investors who are unsure of what comes next for gold stocks, one approach is to use my guswinger.com signals to trade ETFs like NUGT and DUST with limited drawdowns. We booked some nice profits yesterday and we’re ready for anything that Jackson Hole brings!
Another approach for eager gold stock investors would be to buy the $28-$26 range for GDX, with an optional stoploss placed just under $26. If gold does pullback from $1500 on Jackson Hole or tariff tax news, money managers will be buyers of both bullion and gold stocks. It’s a healthy market!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Safehavenization of Gold Stocks” report. I highlight key gold stocks that are becoming safe havens for money managers in a negative rates environment that appears to be here to stay! I include money making tactics to reduce drawdowns and enhance gains.

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Stewart Thomson

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Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this chart.
Another glorious day for gold investors is underway.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
The only better-looking chart than gold right now is… silver!
Years ago, I coined the term “flagification” to describe the formation of multiple flags on the gold and silver charts.
This technical action is rare and outrageously bullish.
Because it happens with technical indicators overbought and the commercial traders adding seemingly overwhelming short positions on the COMEX, even the best top callers need to use caution in this type of market.
I’ve described the current events in America as resembling a hybrid of what occurred in 1929, 1937, 1968, and 2008.
Stagflation, tariff taxes, US-China empire transition, populist worship of debt-obsessed politicians, and a peaking global business cycle all appear to be in play… at the same time.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this horrifying US stock market chart.
Flagification may soon be in play, but not in a good way! A huge bear flag has already formed on this short-term hourly chart.
I always recommend that US stock market investors go to the sidelines at the start of August with some of their capital. As the business cycle matures, the danger of a crash in September or October increases exponentially.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The weekly chart action of the Dow is ominous, while gold and silver accelerate their upside action.
What’s happening now in both gold and the stock market is reminiscent of the late 1960s when American stagflation began.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
The gold stocks versus gold monthly ratio chart probably is the best illustration of the emerging stagflation theme.
In 2007 gold stocks were at a high price in relation to gold. Now they are very low and basing.
Mainstream analysts have suggested different interest rates that would represent “normalization”. Likewise, some gold stock analysts have suggested that GDX would be “normalized” at a price of about $40.
I would agree with that number if deflation was still the theme rather than emerging stagflation and empire transition. Looking at the long-term ratio chart, a case can be made that GDX would now only be “normalized” at a price somewhere between $100 and $300 a share.
Even after the huge rally in 2019, GDX is still trading below its 2008 lows on the GDX versus gold ratio chart. The bottom line:
In a stagflationary environment, the upside potential for gold is fabulous and for gold stocks versus gold it is mind boggling.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key GDX daily chart.
The stoploss is set at $28 but if GDX moves above $30 (and it could happen today) eager accumulators can add to positions and raise the stop to about $27.70.
In a powerful market featuring such events as “flagification” and a US President who engages in regular QE worship, there’s no point in setting any target price at this early stage in the upside game. My suggestion is just to move stoplosses higher and higher as GDX makes one fresh and glorious minor trend high after another!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Get Jacked With Gold!” report. I focus on key miners trading in the $2-$5 price range. I include key buy and sell action points in a video that can be viewed on a smart phone!

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Stewart Thomson

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Is gold finally due to swoon or can it continue to rally?
The naysayers point to overbought conditions on the weekly charts, COT reports showing a mammoth short position held by the commercial traders, and the upcoming stock market “crash season”.
The bulls point to a peaking US business cycle, inflationary and growth-destructive tariffs, a tight job market, an increasingly dovish Fed, strong central bank buying, de-dollarization, out of control government spending and debt, and Chinese investors buying more gold instead of investing in their weak stock market.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this awesome weekly gold chart.
In the big picture, both fundamentally and technically, the bulls clearly have not just the edge, but a mighty wind at their backs.
What about the short-term picture? Well, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Even in the short-term, I give the edge to the bulls!
There’s a rectangular drift in play, and per Edwards & Magee (writers of the technical analysis “bible”), rectangles have roughly a 67% chance of consolidating the existing trend, which is up.
Even if the price were to reverse on a disappointing Fed announcement, there’s great intermediate time frame support at $1360-$1275.
Institutional money managers are only going to become more enthusiastic about gold, silver, and the miners as the business cycle matures and the Fed becomes more dovish. Any pullback in the gold price now will be bought by their very strong hands.
What about the stock market? If there’s a crash in September or October, would gold stocks suffer?
Well, the CDNX index (where the “ultra-junior” miners trade) fell with the Dow during last year’s crash season swoon, but gold and most senior miners blasted higher!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular GDX versus US stock market ratio chart.
From a performance perspective, gold stocks look poised to “destroy” the US stock market.
A massive inverse H&S bottom breakout is in play.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this gold versus Nasdaq ETF chart (QQQ).
In 2011 the dollar began breaking out from a huge base pattern against the yen. Gold began to break down from a huge double top pattern against the Nasdaq. This told me a general risk-on theme was emerging and I suggested investors sell some gold and put the proceeds into the stock market.
Now, the opposite situation is beginning to take shape and investors should consider allocating some capital from the equity markets to gold, silver, and the miners now…
And with bigger size when there’s a breakout over 9 on the weekly gold versus Nasdaq chart.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX swing trade chart. I don’t see any reason for gold stock investors to be nervous, but for those who are, my swing trade service at https://guswinger.com/ is designed to wash those worries away.
Investors get solid performance and low drawdowns trading NUGT/DUST and SQQQ/TQQQ. I’ve introduced text alerts to investor cell phones as an optional means of sending the trade alerts to busy business people who like the swing trade action.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDXJ chart. The GDXJ ETF is called a “junior miners” ETF, but in my professional opinion, it’s really more of an intermediate producer ETF now.
The current price action is truly exhilarating! An inverse H&S bottom and a marvellous bull pennant pattern both target the $45 price area. The $35-$36 zone is outstanding support.
Aggressive gamblers can “step up to the JNUG plate” and buy the JNUG ETF. It’s a a triple-leveraged version of GDXJ.
Whether JNUG, GDXJ, or individual component stocks of the ETFs are used, buyers of size can place a stoploss order under the pennant low to mitigate “Fed Day” announcement risk. Modest-size buyers don’t need stoploss orders. Just buy and prepare to watch GDXJ and its component stocks fly!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free report. “Wave My Golden Flags!” report. I highlight ten of the sweetest gold stocks staging massive bull flag and pennant action on the daily charts. I outline key tactics for investors who are ready to get richer!

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Stewart Thomson

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At McDonald’s restaurant, customers can “supersize” their food orders. Can gold supersize its awesome 2019 price action?
Well, please click here now: https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019jul23gold1.png Double-click to enlarge.
The technical action on this gold chart is spectacular!
Gold has formed a massive pennant formation. There’s no guarantee that it plays out, but if it does the technical target is in the $1560 area.
A $1560 gold price would turn most gold producers into gargantuan cash cows, and the near-vertical rally already in play in silver would likely become a textbook barn burner.
Please click here now: https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019jul23si1.png Double-click to enlarge. A pattern like a double bottom is now in play on the weekly silver chart.
This pattern suggests the silver rally is just getting started and a breakout over the neckline would target the $18.50 area.
The Western fear trade for gold is now the “price driver in play” for all the precious metals upside action, but the love trade is also providing solid and consistent support for the market.
Interestingly, the Indian government tariff taxes of 12.5% have effectively revalued the price of the vast hoards of gold held by Indian citizens by 12.5%.
In America, real interest rates continue to decline as the business cycle peaks. Any uptick in inflation could create an institutional “feeding frenzy” in gold stocks and silver stocks.
Please click here now: https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019jul23realrates1.png Many bond market analysts believe that rate cuts from the Fed could accelerate the issuance of negative-rate bonds… dramatically!
Please click here now: https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019jul23gold2.png Double-click to enlarge. Some gold analysts worry about the “large” commercial short position in gold on the COMEX, but I predicted years ago that when gold broke out of the bull continuation pattern… the commercial short position could rise to millions of contracts, with the price still going higher!
That’s because there are so many institutional money managers getting involved with gold now. The bottom line: Cash pays nothing and has no upside, and a surge in inflation would destroy the bond market and potentially topple the US government.
In this environment, institutional stock market investors are embracing gold and gold stocks. They are beginning to embrace silver too. Because silver is such a small market, even modest institutional buying is producing vertical price action!
Another positive aspect to the arrival of institutional investors in gold, silver, and the miners may be of interest to conspiracy buffs who believe in price manipulation.
I say that because institutional investors have in-house investigators who monitor the market action. They are quick to alert regulators when market trades don’t make sense.
Whether serious gold price manipulation existed in the past is probably unknowable, but there’s no question that the current market feels “cleaner” and more stable than it did when hedge funds dominated the market.
The SPDR fund (GLD-NYSE) is now at 825 tons, and the SLV-NYSE silver fund is now at 11,070 tons. Institutions are buying steadily.
What happens if the Fed disappoints at next week’s key meeting? What happens if there’s no rate cut? Well, since 2014 I’ve talked about all Fed actions being positive for gold.
Gold rallied on QT and rate hikes and the stock market tanked because of the safe haven bid. Gold also rallied on the recent Fed pause… much more than the stock market did!
The bottom line: If the Fed doesn’t cut rates at next week’s key meeting the stock market will crash and gold will cash a huge safe haven bid. Everything the Fed does is now win-win for gold.
Please click here now: https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019jul23gdx1.png Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GDX chart. I coined the term “flagification” to describe a market so powerful that numerous bull flags appear in succession. That’s happening with GDX and many gold miners now.
For a look at the important weekly chart for GDX, please click here now: https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019jul23gdx2.png Double-click to enlarge. If the bull flag on the daily chart plays out, GDX is going to my $30-$32 target zone, and to $37-$40 if the “supersize” bull pennant on the gold bullion chart activates.
The breakout above $26 on the weekly chart has turned the entire $23-$26 area into a massive support zone, so any failure or churning in the flag/pennant formations is little more than an annoying bearish fly that should soon be swatted away by a growing army of excited institutional buyers.
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Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Protecting The Profits!” report. I highlight the tactics used by top investors in the 1970s gold market to protect their profits after massive rallies in gold stocks and I apply those tactics to eight key stocks now!Graceland Updates

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It’s the ultimate “no-brainer” that serious American GDP growth (in the 6% range or higher) can only happen by eliminating the PIT (personal income tax) for the middle class.
QE and low interest rates incentivize pathetic levels of debt-oriented GDP growth while incentivizing the government to get more reckless with the money that is borrowed and extorted from citizens as taxes.
Elimination of the PIT would instantly turn the debt-bombed middle class of America into a “savings and purchasing power machine”.
With higher rates and elimination of the PIT, government would be forced to shrink, banks would eagerly loan out the savings to mainstream business, and the middle class would consume with savings rather than credit card debt.
The bad news: The PIT won’t be eliminated, and government worship of debt, QE, low rates, and extortion is not going away.
The good news: That means the gold price is going higher!
To view the key buy and sell levels for gold, please click here now. Double click to enlarge.
Gold investors should be eager buyers of gold, silver, and the miners in the $1390 gold price area or on a breakout above $1440.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key weekly gold chart.
The most likely scenario for gold now is a rally towards $1500-$1523, followed by a significant pullback that will probably look a lot like the late 2009 pullback.
What actually happens is almost certainly going to depend on the actions and statements from the Fed at the July 31 meeting.
If the Fed isn’t as dovish as expected, gold could pullback towards $1320 quite quickly. A half point cut and a dovish outlook could produce a dramatic “target overshoot” for gold. A surge to $1750 would be quite realistic in that situation.
Whatever happens, $1390, $1360, and $1320 are all key buy zones and $1440, $1500, and $1750 are all decent profit booking targets.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily silver chart. Like Rodney Dangerfield, silver doesn’t get much respect, but that’s because inflation has yet to really surge.
Having said that, the silver chart is beginning to look quite bullish. A breakout from an inverse H&S bottom pattern has occurred, and the pullback was flag-like.
The target of both the flag and the H&S pattern is the $16.50 area highs of February.
From a risk-reward perspective, silver is beginning to look superior to the US stock market.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this swing trade chart.
Swing trade enthusiasts can get in on the leveraged ETF action for gold stocks and the Nasdaq with my guswinger.com service. We are also carrying a massive Barrick position. Signals are available by email (and cell phone text for traders with US cell phone numbers).
For an analytical look at the GDX daily chart, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I use a 24hour chart for GDX. On this chart, a surge above $26.45 would be a fresh buy signal not just for GDX, but for most intermediate and senior gold producers.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this silver stocks ETF chart.
Note the recent superior performance of the silver miners compared to silver bullion.
There is an H&S bull continuation pattern forming on the chart and I believe that pattern makes an “upside blast” to my $34 target price zone highly likely.
The bottom line for gold and silver stocks: The action is solid, and the action is now!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Ultimate Gold Market Portfolio” report. I highlight tactics to assemble a pure performance portfolio of global metal miners, with key action points for each holding!

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While some gold stocks (the South Africans in particular) continue to rally, bullion and most miners are staging a classic pullback after a major upside breakout.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this important monthly gold chart. The bottom line:
Breakouts are fun. Pullbacks are not!
My advice to investors: Wait for the pain. Wait for emotional pain to begin before pressing the buy button on a pullback.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I’ve highlighted key support zones on this daily gold chart, and the bottom line is this:
The current pullback could end near $1380, $1360, or it could become quite a bit deeper before finally ending in the $1330-$1250 price zone.
I don’t believe most gold investors are really prepared to handle a deeper pullback. Nervous investors should buy put options, not so much as a financial hedge but as an emotional hedge.
A financial hedge is not required at this point in the U.S. business cycle, but any pullback can be emotionally troublesome. Investors need to do whatever it takes to handle the change in sentiment.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. On this daily gold chart, note the large uptrend channel and Fibonacci retracement lines from the 2018 August low.
A “power uptrend” line has snapped and gold has only corrected down to the 76% retracement line area. A deeper correction is normal and healthy after the huge surge in the price after the monthly chart bull continuation breakout.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this dollar versus yen chart.
The gold and the yen are risk-off currencies. The upside breakout in the dollar against the yen doesn’t guarantee a deeper correction for gold, but it does make it very likely.
What are the fundamentals behind the gold price pullback and strength in the dollar against the yen?
For the answer to that question, please click here now. I believe that both stock market and gold investors are over-estimating the Fed’s dovishness.
Most institutional money managers are predicting a series of rate cuts and more QE from the Fed, but that’s not what the Fed’s dot plot or its chairman are indicating lies ahead.
Friday’s U.S. employment report was strong and Trump has seemingly finally realized that his tariff tax tantrums are doing nothing but harm to global stock markets.
In this situation, it’s very hard to see the Fed doing anything at the July 31 meeting other than a single quarter point “insurance” cut.
While Poland’s central bank just bought almost 100 tons of physical gold, this is likely a “one-off” purchase and India’s fresh gold import tax hike came on the same day as the strong U.S. jobs report.
The tax hike caught bullish analysts by surprise and adds to short-term pressure on the gold price.
Investor tactics? Well, amateur investors should generally wait for a $100/ounce gold price sale before buying gold or silver. From the $1442 area highs, that would make the $1342 area a solid entry point. There’s not much else to do on the buy side until there is a $100/ounce price sale. It’s really that simple!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly GDX chart. I called the $23-$18 price zone an important accumulation zone for investors.
Those who took my strong buy recommendation can sell a small portion of their position now, but I recommend holding at least 70% of the position for an upside journey into my first target zone of $30-$32.
I would not do any serious selling until GDX arrives in my second target zone of $38-$40. The main driver of a rally to that target zone will be a concerning rise in inflation that occurs as US corporate earnings and GDP growth continue to soften. The bottom line: Fed doesn’t need to cut nominal rates to make real rates fall in that situation. All it needs to do is…nothing! That’s because a rise in inflation with no change in nominal rates is a cut in real rates.
The bottom line: I expect an institutional money manager stampede into GDX and key individual miners will occur later this year as stagflation rises to essentially become… a Grim Reaper made of gold!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Junior Champions In The Pullback Zone!” report. I highlight key junior miners that seem immune to the current gold price pullback and silver price gulag. They are blasting to fresh highs and I provide investors with key tactics to play the upside action!

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Major fundamental processes and events create the large chart patterns seen on the monthly charts. It’s important for gold and stock market investors to stay focused on the big picture, both technically and fundamentally.
To view the big technical picture for gold, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
Since 2001, my proprietary weekly chart signals system has only generated five buy signals for gold bullion. Note the similarity of the latest one with the 2009 signal.
The current signal happens with India just days away (July 5) from a possible gold tariff tax cut as part of its new budget, and the July 31 Fed meeting only a month away.
I’ve put the odds of a gold tariff tax cut at about 50%. To view key news related to the US business cycle, please click here now. The Dow gave back most of its early morning gain yesterday, after rising on the news that Trump would temporarily halt his tariff tax bombing runs on the stock markets, corporations, and working class of America.
Over the long term, the only way for conservative governments to compete with handouts-focused liberals at the voting polls is with working class tax cuts. By refusing to cut income taxes for America’s working class, Trump risks losing the 2020 election.
He is now rumoured to be considering a capital gain tax cut (for stock market elitists) instead of an income tax cut for the poor. That’s going to drive more blue-collar voters towards the democrats.
With US corporate earnings and America’s working class now looking a lot like drowning passengers on the Titanic, gold is the obvious “choice of champions”.
To view another key big picture chart for this mighty asset, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
After a major upside breakout from an enormous bullish chart pattern, a pullback is expected and normal. The bigger the chart pattern is, the bigger the pullback can be.
Gold could easily pull back to the $1320-$1250 price zone before roaring on towards my $1550 and $2000 price targets. That shouldn’t bother investors because this type of pullback action is typical after a major breakout.
Regardless, a shallow pullback would obviously be preferred by most gold market investors and that’s also a realistic scenario.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. There is a bull flag in play on the daily gold chart.
A cut in India’s gold tariff tax on Friday would be the likely catalyst for an upside breakout from the flag pattern. If there is no cut, a deeper correction would likely ensue. In that scenario, gold would probably pull back to at least $1360, but more likely to $1320-$1250 by the July 31 Fed meet.
Please click here now. There’s a lot of talk about the gold versus silver ratio right now. Silver investors should exercise caution before racing in to buy silver just based on the level of the ratio. Here’s why:
If Trump blows the 2020 election, America could quickly become a socialist state. Stock markets would incinerate and silver (an industrial metal) could fall further against gold on the ratio chart until inflation became obvious.
Also, the monsoon season in India isn’t going well. It’s a mini-disaster now, and it could soon become a full disaster. If the crop harvest is horrific, Indian farmers won’t have additional money to buy physical silver bullion.
They will likely just buy the gold they need to meet their needs for religious festivals and weddings. That will put even more upside pressure on the gold/silver ratio.
U.S. corn crops are also in trouble. The crop situation in both India and America is significant. It could produce food inflation, especially if the democrats win the U.S. election. Regardless, silver investors should wait for inflation to appear rather than try to anticipate it.
The 80 area on the ratio chart could be support now. Silver can do well against the dollar, but investors should wait for silver to break down from the green uptrend channel I’ve highlighted on the chart before getting too excited about… silver versus gold.
Silver and mining stocks should be part of an overall allocation to the gold asset class. Amateur stock market investors need to be careful about trying to outperform the Dow with their own growth stocks portfolio. Growth stocks should be part of a US stock market portfolio. They are not a replacement for the Dow.
Likewise, gold market investors should be careful about owning only silver or mining stocks with the belief they will outperform gold bullion over the long run. That’s unlikely to happen. A well-diversified gold asset class portfolio includes bullion, ETFs, and individual miners. Simply put, to stand tall, own it all!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular GDX chart. Note the bullish pennant formation in play. GDX has barely retraced any of its recent near-vertical blast to the upside. The 50% Fibonacci line sits at about $23.20. Gold stock accumulators need to get toes in the water as this pullback plays out. Why? Well, perhaps because history favours the bold!
America could descend into a permanent socialist and stagflationary quagmire after the next election. This, while India’s first “semi-sane” finance minister in years could cut the gold import tax within just days. She is highly unlikely to unveil any new policy that is negative for gold. It’s obvious that for the world’s greatest asset and the companies that mine it, all major fundamental and technical lights are green!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “The Bold Go For The Gold!” report. I highlight outperforming miners in the gold price pullback zone, with key buy and sell points for eight of them!

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To view what may be the most important chart in the history of markets, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold is breaking out of a massive inverse H&S bull continuation pattern, and that pattern itself may be the head of an even more massive pattern that targets the $3000 price area.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GDX chart.
At my https://guswinger.com swing trade service, traders are sitting on a veritable mountain of profits, having entered NUGT at about $20 barely a week ago. It’s $30 now!
NUGT is a triple-leveraged ETF that tracks GDX. We are also long Barrick and Agnico Eagle stock, and we hold Kirkland Lake call options. If the market turns lower, we’ll not only have the profits locked in… we’ll short the market too, via DUST and JDST.
Having said that, long-term investors should not try to top call this market. Gold is staging a major upside breakout on the charts, and the fear trade is the main price driver now. Hedges should be reduced, and aggressive speculators should hold call options on quality miners.
Almost all major US money managers and analysts are predicting a major dovish pivot for the Fed at the upcoming July 31 meeting.
Unfortunately for members of the Trump administration “fan club”, these analysts are basing their outlook on a peaking business cycle and the horrifying (and potentially inflationary) effects of the tariff taxes tantrum currently being thrown by the administration.
Tariffs are a global GDP growth wrecking ball, and I’m predicting there are going to be more tariff taxes, more corporate earnings disappointments, and no tax cuts for the working class of America.
The million-dollar question is this: What does the Fed do when the tariffs begin creating visible inflation as corporate earnings continue to fade?
If the Fed hikes to fight the inflation, the stock market implodes and gold rallies strongly. If the Fed does nothing, the stock market likely goes nowhere and gold rallies.
If the Fed cuts (and three big bank analysts are predicting a half point cut at the July meet), the stock market would stagger higher, and gold would probably stage a “moon shot” higher.
Trump put more sanctions in place against Iran yesterday. Iranian government spokesmen suggested that marks the end of diplomacy. War isn’t guaranteed, but it’s certainly possible. The bottom line: Gold is the obvious place for investors to be!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. While gold stocks continue to soar, the US stock market is struggling.
I’m long TQQQ as a swing trade. I do still have buy signals in play on the weekly charts for most of the US stock market, but my recommendation as any business cycle matures is to reduce position size on core positions. Concentrate on short-term trading to reduce risk and relieve stress.
That’s hard for investors to do, especially when their favourite politician, Donald Trump, is the president of the United States. Like Trump, Herb Hoover was an incredibly successful businessman. When he was elected, many of America’s business leaders predicted that the business cycle was “defeated”, and America would never have a recession ever again.
The stock market promptly fell 90% and the nation voted in socialist and war mongering madman Roosevelt. He gave the citizens food stamps, took their gold, and the banks bought stocks as the ravaged citizens sold.
The US stock market moves higher or lower mainly on interest rate decisions from the Fed (which includes QE/QT) and on earnings growth, or lack of it.
If the Fed cuts rates and earnings don’t start improving, money managers will begin to sell stock market rallies and rate cut decisions. The gold price rally will intensify in that situation.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The price action on this USD vs yen chart is quite concerning, and it fits with current calls from major bank analysts for rate cuts to stop the economic slowdown from worsening.
When the US stock market rises while the dollar falls against the yen, it suggests the rally is not based on economic growth, and risks are rising. That’s exactly what is happening now.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Is bitcoin a safe haven? I call it an asset that makes investors richer, but whether it’s a safe haven or not is debatable.
What is clear though, is that gold, T-bonds, yen, and bitcoin are all rallying… as money managers grow more concerned about peaking US growth in this business cycle.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly GDX chart. A major breakout occurred yesterday, and a flagpole pattern has formed on the chart. A bull flag on a weekly chart in any market is very rare and carries powerful upside implications. I think a bull flag may start forming on GDX and many component stocks. When will the breakout happen?
Well, I’ll predict that the breakout happens around the July 31 Fed meet, as an institutional money manager stampede into gold stocks is unleashed!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Junior Miners On Golden Steroids!” report. I highlight key GDXJ junior and intermediate miners that are becoming must-own stocks for the rest of 2019! I include key buy and sell levels for each stock.

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Stewart Thomson

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Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at approx 9am daily.

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Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.

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It’s my firm belief that most Americans are living in a fantasy world where a superhero named President Trump is going to negotiate fabulous “America-first” trade deals with cowering governments around the world… and Americans will then magically relive the 1950s with massive GDP growth, even while QE to infinity becomes as American as apple pie.
The reality of the situation is almost the exact opposite of this fantasy world; de-dollarization is relentless and American government size and debt growth is totally out of control.
China is an economic bullet train carrying 1.4 billion gold-focused passengers. It’s blasting through a melting block of American fiat-focused butter, and India’s citizens are poised to take everything China’s citizens are doing to even greater gold-oriented heights.
The rise of the Chindian gold-oriented economic empire and the decline of the American empire are both unstoppable processes.
There’s no question that Trump will negotiate numerous trade deals with more favourable terms for America than his presidential predecessors ever did, but the tariff taxes involved mean these deals create less global growth rather than more.
These taxes are also inflationary.
A “big” trade deal between China and American is unlikely, but even if it happens it would probably add only about half a point to the current pathetic level of U.S. GDP growth in the short term, and it wouldn’t stop the business cycle from peaking.
The cycle is peaking. Recession is coming.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. A breakout above $1362 targets $1450.
Simply put, the peak in the business cycle is when sane investors buy gold and silly children try to relieve the 1950s by price-chasing the U.S. stock market.
I’m long the stock market, but I’m not buying new and bigger core positions. I consider that an act of financial madness.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. It’s been a great ten-year run for the stock market, and now it’s clearly time to book some profits, fade position size, buy gold, and wait for the next bear market in stocks to bring a major buying opportunity.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. There is no asset class that does as well as gold does as the business cycle peaks, and this cycle peak might include the interesting arrival of… inflation.
Note the similarity of the current action in the inverse H&S bull continuation pattern to the price action in late 2009. Gold is poised for a major upside breakout.
I think the U.S. business cycle peak will force Trump to change tactics from trying to extend the cycle with tariff taxes and he’ll focus on devaluing the dollar. If he loses the election, the democrats are also likely to pursue dollar devaluation. It’s win-win for gold.
I expect this U.S. business cycle peak will be followed by a substantial period of growing stagflation.
That means the Dow could gyrate between about 15,000 and 30,000 for years in a stagflationary quagmire, much like it gyrated between 500 and 1000 in the 1970s as stagflation lorded over all markets.
“Right now, they’ll just give a very dovish message that leans toward a July rate cut. The market is worried enough about weakness in China, inflation undershooting and the possibility that tariffs disrupt the global supply chain that it’s hard for me not to think the Fed won’t be moving faster than people thought.” – Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas, Natixis, June 14, 2019.
Mike Grapen is chief economist at Barclays bank, and he’s predicting a half-point cut in July! The bottom line is that while the long-term outlook for America is empire-fade and stagflation, the Fed is still a powerful central bank and the main driver of the U.S. stock market.
On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this short-term Nasdaq stock market chart. While big core positions should be reduced as the business cycle matures, short-term trading should be embraced.
At my https://guswinger.com swing trade site, I’m betting the Fed makes a dovish statement at tomorrow’s key meeting, and that creates short-term buying of the stock market… and gold!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. The current Fed meet should be bullish for gold stocks. What about the July meet?
Well, that should be even more bullish! A big rate cut in July may not be enough to save the stock market from the tariff tax quagmire it’s sinking into as the business cycle peaks.
That’s because institutional money managers traditionally begin to sell the stock market as the Fed cuts rates at the peak of the cycle and… they buy gold! Once tomorrow’s Fed meet is out of the way, it will be time for gold stock investors to get bold, reduce hedges, buy all dips, and… enjoy!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Gold & Silver Miners, A Perfect Mix!” report. I highlight key gold and silver miners that are poised fly in July! Key buy and sell tactics for each stock are included.

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Cheers

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at approx 9am daily.

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Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.

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A lot of Americans getting a myriad of government entitlements thought that President Trump would recreate the 1950s for them.
If Trump had eliminated the PIT (personal income tax), capital gains tax, and corporate income tax, I’ve estimated that around $100 trillion in capital would have surged into America.
That would have created a super-sized version of what Switzerland achieved at its peak.
Sadly, Trump and his team didn’t do that, mainly because they are giving the citizens what they want; bigger government, more debt, and more storytelling.
To understand what is likely coming next for America, please click here now. Mike Wilson does a near-perfect job of outlining what I believe is in store for H2 of 2019.
Yesterday, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist was quite adamant that the consensus prediction of three rate cuts in the second half of this year would go awry, and the Fed will not cut at all.
The risks are clearly rising for U.S. stock market investors.
My biggest concern is that many Americans sold a lot of their gold stocks into the lows and are now aggressively buying the US stock market. The size of their buying is quite large.
Unfortunately, their buying appears to be based mostly on Trump’s frequent “Let’s make America great!” pump-up tweets, rather than prudent study of the business cycle.
The U.S. business cycle is very late stage now, and that’s when investors must reduce stock market exposure and increase exposure to gold!
Having said that, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this TQQQ triple-leveraged Nasdaq ETF chart.
Almost 80% of mainstream stock market analysts predict the Fed will cut in July. If they are correct, the stock market will likely soar to new highs. If they are wrong, the market likely begins crashing at the start of August.
A lot of stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials index are already at new highs, and that’s usually a sign that the indexes will make new highs too, regardless of whether a crash follows soon after that. I think new highs for the indexes occurs ahead of the July Fed meeting. That meeting also likely marks the final bull market peak for the U.S. stock market.
At my https://guswinger.com swing trade service, we are long the stock market via TQQQ. My system is mechanical; I am always either long or short the Nasdaq via TQQQ/SQQQ. I’m also always long or short gold stocks via NUGT/DUST.
Even if the Fed doesn’t cut rates at the July 31 meeting, the market has about six weeks to keep rallying before getting disappointed by the Fed’s decision.
Also, I would not rule out a rate cut, because the Fed has tended to support the stock market whenever it gets into trouble. The Fed has also tended to support the U.S. government with lower rates when the government wants to borrow a lot of money.
What about gold? Well, I suggested that investors should brace themselves for a pullback from $1350. That’s clearly in play this week as the stock market rallies. Also, Indian dealers have reduced their buying after the big gold price surge.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. The most impressive event in the rally from the $1272 area is the creation of a new up channel!
A range trade for gold is likely now. I think it will be in the $1310-$1350 area, although a wider range of $1292-$1350 is also possible. I’m happily short gold stocks at my swing trade service via DUST/JDST after a big NUGT/JNUG win, but I do expect some gold stocks to keep rallying even as gold consolidates in the trading range.
On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this Kirkland Lake chart. My swing trade subscribers and I hold call options on this great company. The stock is trading above its February high while most gold stocks are not. This kind of outperformance is what I look for when considering a call options position.
As GDX tumbled yesterday, Kirkland rallied higher!
Speaking of GDX, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The entire pullback from February is starting to look like a giant flag pattern. The price target of the pattern is about $29.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s a second look at the GDX chart. Any consolidation that occurs now will build a H&S bull continuation pattern as well as more flag-like price action.
The July Fed meeting (which occurs as the gold love trade strong demand season begins) could create a stock market inferno and a gold stocks “Rally to the stars”. The bottom line: Investors who pare their stock market exposure as the US business cycle matures and increase their exposure to gold stocks are clearly acting with professionalism and prudence!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Junior Giants!” report. I highlight key junior miners that are outperforming in this gold price consolidation zone, with key buy and sell tactics for each stock!

Thanks!!

Cheers

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates written daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.

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The powerful sell signals I have in play for U.S. stock markets at my guswinger.com trading service show no signs of abating.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this Nasdaq ETF chart.
U.S. President Trump unleashed a huge corporate tax cut early in his presidency, and that was very positive news for the stock market. Since early 2018 though, he clearly reversed course on taxes and has donned a ghoulish “Super Tariff Taxes Man” cape.
Trump now seems emotionally obsessed with tariff taxes, QE, rate cuts, and appears to have made no effort to reverse the massive growth in government size and debt.
U.S. population demographics are not good. An aging population is now trying to wall in an entitlements-oriented political system that depends on the dollar as reserve currency to keep it solvent.
Trump’s calls for more QE at the peak of the business cycle are something out of a “Twilight Zone” episode.
QE is supposed to be an emergency policy tool reserved for severe economic crisis, not for launch at the peak of the business cycle to empower ever-more government spending and debt!
Institutional investors are becoming very concerned (and rightly so) that Trump’s tariff taxes will push the U.S. economy into recession before the business cycle naturally does so.
For those of us who shorted the stock market as my QQQ-NYSE signals flashed though, Trump’s actions are “making us great”.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular GDX daily chart.
In the summer of 2018 a lot of analysts predicted a stock market crash that would drag down gold stocks (like 2008). In contrast, I suggested a stock market crash was likely, but it would be accompanied by a surge in the price of GDX.
That’s what happened last fall, and it’s happening again now. GDX is surging higher as the US stock market nose dives!
Note my $25-$26 target zone for GDX on this daily chart.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. My $25-$26 target zone is based partly on the weekly chart resistance in that price zone.
A Friday NYSE close above $23 for GDX, $36 for Newmont, $46 for Agnico Eagle, and $14 for Barrick are what I’m looking for to launch a major run higher for most gold stocks. That may or may not be accompanied by a move above $1370 for gold bullion and a fresh leg down for the tariffs-infested stock market.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s a look at my swing trade signals for GDX.
There are multiple gaps in play on the daily chart. That’s very rare in any market. In time, this GDX price action may be viewed as “legendary” in the face of the stock market rout….
If the rally continues and makes it to my target prices!
I issued a general gold stocks profit booking call for investors and traders yesterday, but not for JNUG, which I suggest investors hold for more glorious potential gains until I get a full signal for the sector.
Please click here now. On Sunday the Chinese government issued a white paper stating that Trump has backtracked in tariff tax negotiations. Now a travel warning has been also issued. This is going to generate additional concern for Chinese citizens who are invested in America. They pay close attention to official statements from their government.
SPDR (GLD-NYSE) tonnage surged to the 159 level yesterday. This is clear evidence that U.S. money managers are also going for the gold! Chinese investors are reporting buying additional gold because they believe Trump cannot be trusted in negotiations.
I predicted that Chinese investors would begin buying gold instead of investing in stock markets as the trust issue reared its ugly head, and now it’s happening. The bottom line: It really doesn’t matter whether Trump can be trusted or not.
What matters is what U.S. and Chinese investors believe, and they clearly believe that it’s time to go for the gold!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge what I believe is the most majestic-looking chart in the history of markets. All the price action taking place now is exactly what investors should expect to happen in the final right shoulder rally of a H&S bull continuation pattern. Gold’s fear trade in America and the love trade in China and India are in perfect sync, both technically and fundamentally. Investors need do only one thing now, and that is to bask in the golden glory of this historic moment in bull era time!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to free reports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Rockets To Pluto!” report. I highlight eight gold miners trading under $10/share that are poised for stage “multi-bagger” gains as gold breaks above $1370! I include key tactics to buy and sell each stock.

Stewart Thomson

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Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at approx 9am daily.

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1. The fear trade for gold continues to gain fundamental strength. The technical picture is also solid. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold is poised for significant upside action in the second half of this year.

2. A large bull wedge is in play as institutional investors become more concerned about the slowing global economy.

3. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. This Nasdaq ETF chart (QQQ-NYSE) looks particularly concerning. A break under the $177.50 price zone could be followed by a significant decline.

4. The recent peaks and troughs for the stock market are in sync with the peaks and troughs for the price of oil. If oil can’t rise with Iran being pounded by US government sanctions, something is wrong.

5. Oil could crash if there’s a softening of the sanctions and that could cause a stock market crash.

6. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this oil price chart. Low priced oil helps consumers, but it hurts stock market earnings. An ominous bear flag has appeared on the chart.

7. US frackers need $60 oil on a consistent basis. They help provide the stock market with the earnings growth it needs to satisfy institutional investors.

8. $60 oil on a sustained basis is just not happening right now, and I don’t expect it will happen without a major upturn in the global economy.

9. Please click here now. Institutional analysts are beginning to view the tariff taxes as a growth-inhibiting quagmire that won’t go away for a long time.

10. They are also beginning to talk about the inflationary implications of the tariffs. What happens if inflation picks up and Trump successfully pressures the Fed into leaving rates alone?

11. That could cause much greater concern about inflation amongst economists and money managers would likely turn to gold to protect their portfolios.

12. The second of half of 2019 is likely to see gold get significant investor interest… particularly if the stock market continues to weaken while inflationary pressures rise.

13. Both my short-term and medium-term stock market trade signals have moved to a “ sell ”. The long-term buy signal is still holding but it looks shaky.

14. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this dollar versus yen chart. The dollar looks terrible and a new leg lower seems imminent.

15. The dollar’s softness relates to lack of interest in US risk-on markets by investors. They are more interested in safety now than risk-related opportunity. That’s good news for gold!

16. The US government has referred to the tariff taxes issue as a war. In the short-term, it’s producing higher prices for US consumers and dragging down global GDP growth.

17. In the medium-term, China’s government could restrict rare earth exports to America. That would probably cause a stock market crash. If the US economy keeps softening as China begins to handle the tariffs issue more aggressively, US democrats could get elected.

18. In turn, that would put the dollar front and centre in the next economic downturn.

19. My big focus for the long-term asset allocation is the Indian stock market and gold. That’s because Indian GDP growth will almost certainly rise to 10%+ and stay there for decades.

20. This, while America probably grows at 3%-4% in a good year and averages 1%-2%. There’s only so much upside “ blood ” that the Fed can squeeze out of a QE “ stone ” for US stock market investors with that kind of growth. The demographics just aren’t there, and the entitlements are too big of a drag on the economy.

21. I’m vastly more focused on short-term trading for the US stock market now than long-term investment. I do that at www.guswinger.com where I also trade NUGT and DUST for gold stock trading enthusiasts.

22. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I don’t expect much action from GDX and gold stocks until gold bursts out of the bull wedge formation and the US stock market begins another leg down.

23. That likely happens as institutional investors accept the tariff talks as an unresolvable quagmire and begin to wonder how the Fed will deal with emerging stagflation.

24. A Friday close of $23 for GDX, $14 for Barrick (GOLD-NYSE), $36 for Newmont (NEM-NYSE) and $46 for Agnico (AEM-NYSE) are the “ launchpad ” numbers for gold stock investors to focus on. When those numbers are hit, basis a Friday close, gold, silver, and the miners will be ready for a major bull run!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Gold Stock Fresh Buy & Sell Signals!” report. I highlight key signals for stocks like Kirkland Lake that offer lucrative profits for both traders and investors!

Cheers

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at approx 9am daily.

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1. “Buy in July to watch your gold stocks fly!” That’s a time-tested mantra from “Goldlion”, who picks the junior mining stocks for my Graceland Juniors newsletter.
2. Sadly, this is not July. It’s the month of May, and May is part of the soft demand season for gold. The strong demand season typically runs from August to February.
3. A lot of gold stock investors want gold stocks to roar higher now, but nothing happens before its time. Interestingly, gold’s strong season begins just as stock market crash season begins.
4. Crash season for the US stock market typically runs from August to October. As the business cycle matures, stock market crash season becomes more dangerous and the strong demand season for gold offers more potential reward.
5. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The soft price action is seasonally expected and there’s short term technical weakness, but there’s nothing overly negative, let alone bearish, on this daily gold chart.
6. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this magnificent weekly gold chart. Like Ray Dalio, I’ve suggested the next crisis will be a US dollar crisis more than an economic growth crisis.
7. That’s mainly because Trump administration is pro-growth and pro-business, but it’s also continued to grow both the government debt and the overall size of the government, all in the name of “making citizens great”.
8. This approach to running the government has greatly strengthened the private sector economy while greatly weakening the ability of the government to fund its insane debt and size growth in even a mild economic downturn.
9. In the next downturn, I expect the American private sector to weather the storm reasonably well while the government is forced to print money to fund itself. The bottom line:
10. In the last downturn, QE was used to promote growth and it was deflationary. In the next downturn, QE will be used to make up for lacklustre demand for government bonds, and it will be extremely inflationary.
11. Please click here now. Like America’s Warren Buffett, India’s Rakesh “RJ” Jhunjhunwala likes to heap praise on his government leaders instead of calling them out as extortionists and bullies.
12. Having said that, RJ has the same outlook for the private sector of India that I do in the medium and long-term; a move back towards 8%-9% GDP growth, and then a long-term stay in the double-digits range.
13. This gargantuan growth will increase gold demand quite substantially, and it’s likely to happen as the US government begins devaluing the dollar to manage its outrageous spending and debt. That will trigger fresh fear trade buying in America.
14. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular bitcoin chart. I expect a flag pattern will form, and then bitcoin should roar to the $20,000 area highs.
15. Most investors try to make money by buying what is hot, and they tend to get emotional about it. Bitcoin is not hot. It’s warm.
16. I focus on asset classes more than market timing, although I do that too. Investors build the most wealth, and stay sane doing it, by reducing their focus on what is hot, and instead focusing on making sure they own a piece of the asset class action.
17. The US stock market is part of the global stock markets asset class. So are Chindian stock markets. So, I own some US, Indian, and Chinese stock markets asset class action and I recommend that all investors own some too. It’s that simple.
18. Bitcoin and related crypto currencies are the newest asset class. There’s a lot of silly debate about whether gold is better than bitcoin, or vice-versa. I take the stand that it doesn’t matter which is better. What matters is that both are asset classes and investors need to get involved if they want to get richer. Period.
19. Some analysts claim that bitcoin is already more widely used as a payment mechanism than Paypal. That may or may not be true. Regardless, in time I think crypto will become as widely used as most government fiat, and governments will eagerly tax it with an electronic money transaction tax.
20. My prediction is that bitcoin isn’t going away but governments will ultimately make the most money from it. Investors who want to make money with it, albeit less than the government “people helpers” will make, can check out my crypto/blockchain newsletter at www.gublockchain.com.
21. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I’ll make another prediction, which is that in the current pullback, gold stocks will bottom before bullion does.
22. So far in this month of May, GDX is already showing solid strength relative to gold.
23. Note the dramatic decline in volume from February. Declining volume that accompanies a price decline is a sign of a very healthy market.
24. My Graceland “traffic lights” proprietary technical system indicates that a Friday close over $23 would see a lot of gold stocks begin a major rally. I’ll be watching gold stocks closely for signs of a bullish non-confirmation with bullion… to jump-start that rally!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Mid Caps!” report. I highlight gold producers that are not too big and not too small that are trading in the $2 to $10 price range with significant upside price action possible!

Thanks!!

Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates

https://gracelandjuniors.com
www.guswinger.com

Email:
stewart@gracelandupdates.com
stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
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Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:
Are You Prepared?

1. The short seasonal rally for gold that typically follows India’s Akha Teej holiday (May 7 this year) is in play but this time it is being “juiced” by a major U.S. stock market meltdown!
2. In a game with nine innings, the U.S. business cycle is probably in the eighth or ninth inning.
3. Stock market welfare programs provided by central banks (QE and intense rate cuts) have extended the bull market in stocks. QE is a vile form of corporate socialism. Horrifically, QE is maniacally embraced by governments around the world.
4. Extreme interest rate cuts are a tool to attack elderly savers and make small business loans unprofitable, while promoting stock market buybacks that enrich the elite. These rate cuts and QE also promote government debt worship.
5. The debt worship, which is particularly prevalent in America, has exponentially increased the danger of a 1929-style global stock markets crash. Ominously, it’s happening as the business cycle peaks and a wave of de-dollarization is racing across the globe.
6. U.S. oil company profits have played a big role in overall stock market earnings, and oil suddenly looks quite shaky.
7. The tech-weighted Nasdaq has done better than the Dow in recent years, but the latest tariff tax tantrums thrown by U.S. and Chinese governments could become big nails in the overall earnings growth coffin.
8. Please click here now. Mike Wilson is one of America’s most influential stock market analysts. He suggests that America is headed for recession if more tariffs are coming. I’ve predicted more tariffs are on the way, and here to stay!
9. The tariffs are here for the long-term because the decline of America as lead empire is long-term. Some major bank economists and analysts are also beginning to adopt this view.
10. My www.guswinger.com swing trade service caught all the latest downside action in the Nasdaq as well as the stunning rally in the dollar against the yuan in the FOREX market. These swing trades are mechanical. They are not influenced by U.S. government “world growth leader” propaganda and debt worship.
11. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The Dow has gone nowhere since the tariff taxes were launched. I predict it will continue to go nowhere.
12. Horrifically, at this stage of the business cycle a meltdown is as likely as sideways action. The only people making any money in this stock market are short-term traders and dividend investors.
13. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this superb gold chart. The bull wedge breakout is impressive but until the dollar collapses against the yen I would not get overly excited about gold’s immediate prospects for substantially higher prices.
14. On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I warned investors about the importance of the 109.50 price zone on this USD vs yen chart.
15. A sustained decline below 109.50 would likely see gold challenge the $1350 area highs and the U.S. stock market could enter an “incineration” phase.
16. The influence of Chinese citizens on the gold price should not be underestimated. The tariff taxes are creating a wave of nationalism but also concern about the stock market.
17. When risks rise, bank FOREX traders buy the yen, sell the dollar, and China goes for the gold!
18. I don’t expect the Chinese government to aggressively sell US T-bonds right now, but more U.S. tariffs are likely and then I expect significant T-bond selling to get underway.
19. That will create concerning inflation in America as the U.S. government is forced to either print money or raise rates to peddle its debt to cautious domestic buyers. Hedge fund “supremo” Ray Dalio has predicted America’s future is an inflationary depression. Going forward, all roads lead to gold.
20. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. There’s nothing negative about the price action in most gold stocks right now. It’s all positive. Note the burst of volume during yesterday’s spectacular GDX rally….
21. A rally that occurred while the Dow tumbled 600 points!
22. In the big picture, it’s quite rare for gold stocks to fall while the stock market falls. It happened in 2008 due to system risk but that’s the exception to the gold stocks versus stock market rule.
23. Volume has generally softened since the February strong demand season peak after generally rising during the September-February rally. Note my 14,7,7 Stochastics series buy signal that is just occurring now. A Friday close above $23 is my “launchpad” number.
24. What would be the main feature of an inflationary depression? It would probably be extreme money printing conducted by the U.S. government. GDX has a realistic chance of hitting the $30 area in the second half of this year, and then going even higher in 2020. The good news for gold stock investors is that tariffs are not likely to go away until stock markets incinerate, inflation skyrockets, and the price of gold begins to go parabolic!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Make Gold Stock Profits Now!” report. I highlight key gold stock breakouts and include investor tactics to make money and limit risk. I also highlight the stunning action in bitcoin that is occurring during the stock market meltdown!

Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates

https://gracelandjuniors.com
www.guswinger.com

Email:
stewart@gracelandupdates.com
stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
stewart@guswinger.com

There has been an uptick in market risk over the past couple of weeks, and that’s being reflected in dollar-yen and dollar-gold.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this dollar versus yen chart.
The 109.50 area on this chart is quite important for gold investors. If the dollar falls under that price zone, gold is likely to surge to above $1300.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold looks technically solid here in the middle of the soft demand season. There’s a bull wedge in play, a Stochastics buy signal, and a small double bottom at about $1268.
The U.S. stock market is entering its soft season (May-October) but gold’s strong season really doesn’t get underway until August. Investors should exercise patience but there’s little cause for gold market concern.
Gold stocks were slightly higher earlier this week with the Dow Jones down about 500 points on negative trade negotiation news. That’s positive action for these stocks!
The U.S. and Chinese governments are close to announcing a trade deal, but it comes late in the U.S. business cycle and at the start of the stock market soft season.
A trade deal would likely benefit the Chinese stock market. That’s good news for gold and gold stocks. Chinese investors are in a “so-so” mood right now. A trade deal would put them in a great mood, and when they are in a great mood they celebrate by buying lots of gold.
U.S. growth stocks would likely benefit as well. In the big picture, the Chinese stock market gets badly hurt by tariffs and the U.S. stock market gets badly hurt by QT and rate hikes.
I’m adamant that even the most diehard gold bug should have some capital in the U.S. stock market, bonds, and real estate. Even if it’s just 10% of a gold bug’s portfolio, it’s important for all investors to hedge their bets.
For mainstream investors, gold is the hedge. For gold investors, stock markets, government bonds, and real estate are the hedge.
Investors who put all their eggs in one asset class tend to be driven by emotion. If the stock market soars, they curse gold and chase the stock market. If the stock market falls and gold soars, they sell their stocks and buy gold. That’s not going to build sustained wealth in any asset class. It’s destructive action.
Whether there is a trade deal or not, gold-oriented China is going to keep growing at twice the GDP growth rate of America for a long time, and gold-obsessed India could grow at three times the U.S. growth rate for even longer.
What this means for gold is an evolution of the asset class, from a simple U.S.-based fear trade hedge to a more sophisticated globally-endorsed asset that rises against all fiat in good times and bad, and swoons rather than crashes during setbacks.
The evolution is real, but are investors aware?
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this TLT-NYSE bond ETF chart. It has my Graceland Updates proprietary buy and sell signals annotated on the chart.
Gold is the ultimate risk-off asset class, but T-bonds are a very good indicator of stock market risk. I have a buy signal in play for bonds as the stock market weak season begins.
Please click here now. Renowned economist Joe Stiglitz notes that while U.S. corporate capital expenditures did rise substantially after the Trump tax cuts, stock market buybacks were about 20% higher than those expenditures.
Stiglitz appears overly-critical of Trump, but he is correct that the huge buybacks versus expenditures spread is concerning.
The U.S. economy is reasonably solid, but a lot of the stock market gains are more related to these buybacks, manipulated interest rates, and QE rather than to corporate earnings and overall economic growth.
In a nutshell, there is risk in the market that needs to be respected, especially as the stock market’s soft season begins.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX daily chart. There’s a fresh bear flag in play, but there’s also a large bull wedge pattern appearing.
With Stochastics the most oversold since September, any pullback this week is likely to be contained by the bull wedge formation. GDX could be making a seasonal low, here in the $19-$20 price zone.
The bottom line for gold, silver, and the miners is that the market has already evolved to the point that soft season price declines are of no concern. My suggestion is to focus on short term trading in the soft demand season and core position capital gain in the strong season!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Senior Producer Buy & Sell Tactics” report. I highlight key prices and indicators for six top senior gold producers, with tactics for short-term traders and long-term home run hitters!

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.

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Are You Prepared?

Gold stocks tend to become extraordinarily volatile during weeks that feature multiple key fear trade events.
As the month of May begins, gold stocks are faced with a FOMC meeting and the US jobs report.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart.
Gold itself is quite stable ahead of these key events, in part because of steady physical market demand for India’s Akha Teej prosperity festival.
All gold market investors should consider owning at least some physical gold bullion, even if it’s a token amount. A gold bug should view bullion the way a fiat bug views their dollars.
Gold is money!
A solid bull wedge is in play on the gold chart and my 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator is flashing a buy signal.
Support is at $1268 and resistance is at $1288. If gold can close above $1290 on Friday after the jobs report… a significant rally is likely to occur.
Having said that, the current burst of physical market demand is likely temporary because the soft demand season really doesn’t end until August.
The bottom line is that gold might be making a final low for 2019 in the $1268 area, but the big upside action is unlikely to happen until the strong physical demand season begins later in the summer.
Please click here now. US stock markets are entering a big resistance zone as the weak month of May begins, and the dollar is beginning to decline against the yen.
This is gold-supportive.
The stock market needs strong oil company earnings and Trump just finished a fresh oil price bashing rant. If oil is peaking here, S&P500 earnings are likely to also be peaking.
Please click here now. The Fed is floating a new scheme to put QE in the hands of commercial banks. This may be partly to accommodate the US government’s voracious appetite for debt and it’s positive for gold.
It’s unclear exactly how the scheme would work since it’s still in the planning stages, but if this “commercial bank QE” program moves reserves back into the commercial banking system it could help boost loans growth.
That would boost money velocity and inflation.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX daily chart.
While gold is quite stable this week, gold stocks are volatile and struggling. On the positive side, GDX volume has softened since the strong demand season peak in mid-February, Stochastics is oversold, and the price is at trendline and Fibonacci support.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. On the negative side, there’s a potential bear flag pattern in play.
It’s not a textbook pattern; the flagpole is not vertical and the flag itself is rough, but gold stocks have an ominous history of staging dramatic sell-offs around and during FOMC meet days.
Traders may want to reduce size or go to the sidelines because even the best trading systems will produce a lot of whipsaw action at times like this.
I personally keep trading through these situations because when the trend finally asserts itself, I want to be in for the big move! Also, my trade size is reasonable. Trading accounts should only be one component of an investor’s total precious metals portfolio.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly CDNX “traffic lights” chart. Junior mining stock enthusiasts need to be patient. It’s likely going to take a sustained gold price of $1370 or higher to generate a long-term buy signal for these miners. They will rally nicely before that happens but it may take until later in the summer to generate the “major league” buy signal that will produce gains of hundreds of percent per share for most of the stocks.
It’s hard to see the Fed doing anything tomorrow other than holding rates where they are now. A strong jobs report could be viewed as inflationary because the Fed seems reluctant to take on Trump and hike rates. There’s a lot of pension money in the stock market and rate hikes can really hurt that money. A May stock market swoon? Yes. A crash? No. A Friday close above $1290 for gold likely ends the current price correction and that should put gold stock investors in a great state of mind!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Prepare For Blast Off!” report. I highlight eight key miners with entry points for gold stock enthusiasts who want to prepare now for the gold price surge above $1290!

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am.

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Are You Prepared?

The weak physical demand season continues to cause gold to drift with a clear but modest downside bias.
Despite the swoon, most top bank analysts are extremely positive in their outlook for gold in the second half of the year.
Please click here now. Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper notes a high correlation between the Fed’s actions now and in 2006. Gold does respond to a more dovish Fed, but not immediately.
Suki also predicts U.S. GDP growth will be under 2.5% in 2019, fade to under 2% in 2020, and a downturn will begin in 2021.
She expects the Fed to remain in pause mode and then announce a rate cut as growth and corporate profits continue to fade.
The IMF predicts a similar fade in global growth generally, with the exception of China. India is also likely to see strong growth and that will likely be augmented with government handouts related to the election there.
Essentially, the West will see fading growth. The Fed’s actions will be negative for the dollar and positive for the fear trade for gold. The East will see solid growth and that will be supportive for the love trade for gold.
The big picture for gold in both the East and the West is positive.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart.
While the bank analysts are happy to wait out the weak season, I focus on swing trading with my guswinger.com trade alerts service. While many gold investors are a bit gloomy right now, we’ve been “riding the gravy train” with DUST-NYSE throughout most of the latest GDX downturn.
Recent COT reports show the commercials doing aggressive buying of both gold and silver COMEX contracts. That’s positive but it doesn’t reduce account drawdowns for gold stock investors.
Ultimately, winning trades are how to reduce drawdowns and commercial traders on the COMEX are currently covering enormous short positions at huge profits.
Diversification plays a key role in successful investing. A modest allocation of capital to a solid swing trade program should be part of that diversification.
To view the daily gold chart, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
A potential bull wedge pattern is in play, but until there’s a bigger rally it’s not an actual textbook pattern.
On a positive note, the blue lag line of my 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator is almost oversold and “rallies with teeth” tend to occur when that happens.
Chinese citizens are becoming more positive about their economy and gold demand is perking up. The Akha Teej festival in India is scheduled for May 7 and demand is picking up there too.
The commercial trader buying on the COMEX could be related to this Chindian love trade but the intensity of the buying could also suggest that commercial traders are also anticipating the U.S. stock market could have a particularly nasty “Sell in May and go away”
The S&P 500 index is near its highs and oil prices keep climbing. For now, oil is really in a sweet spot where it is high enough to help S&P500 earnings but not too high to hurt consumers.
That could change quite dramatically, depending on how Iran responds to the U.S. government’s “My way or the highway” announcement to end sanctions waivers on Iranian oil exports.
Good news for oil company earnings could quickly morph into “stagflationary concern” and this could be on the minds of the COMEX commercial traders who are buying gold and silver extremely aggressively now.
American “Gmen” enforce these sanctions by threatening to cut nations off from the dollar-oriented US financial system unless they follow their orders. In the big picture, U.S. government “my way or the highwayism” related to Iran is simply going to accelerate the global wave of de-dollarization, which is good news for gold investors.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. The 50% retracement zone in the $20.50 area and the 60% retracement zone in the $20 area are where gold stock investors should look for a significant rally to begin.
The bottom line is that physical market demand softness is likely to continue into the summer… but a big relief rally for the entire precious metals sector is imminent!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Exceptions To The Rule!” report. I highlight key miners that are blasting higher even with the gold/silver price swoon and I include pinpoint buy and sell trigger points for each stock!

Thanks!!

Cheers

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at approx 9am daily.

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Global stock and bond markets continue to be driven by the macros of a possible trade deal, accommodative central banks, weaker earnings, continued stock buybacks, and rising government debt.
Gold is driven by these same macros, but it has the additional price driver of seasonal Chindian physical market demand.
It’s currently the soft season for physical demand, but the rest of the price drivers are quite positive. Most big bank analysts have gold price targets of about $1400 for 2019.
Unfortunately, they don’t see gold reaching their target prices until seasonal physical demand strengthens later in the year.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key USD vs yen chart. During the September-December period in 2018, global stock markets tumbled as the Fed put pressure on the stock market with higher rates and QT on “autopilot”.
Risk-on markets (stocks and the dollar) tumbled, and risk-off markets (yen and gold) soared. Then a dramatic about-face by the Fed in late December sent the dollar and stocks soaring.
Note that gold continued to rise until mid-February even though stocks and the dollar rallied. That’s because of strong Chinese New Year physical market demand.
The bottom line: When push comes to shove, it is the physical market that ultimately determines the actions the COMEX commercial traders take and that determines the price trend.
In 2019, from February to the current time frame, risk-on markets have continued to strengthen, physical market demand continues its seasonal softness, and so gold meanders sideways with a slight downwards bias.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this chart of DIA-NYSE, a Dow proxy ETF. From a technical perspective, the U.S. stock market has meandered sideways since the U.S. government launched a wave of tariff taxes.
Then it began crashing when the Fed became more aggressive about rate hikes and QT in the late stage of the current business cycle.
The market can probably rally to around where it would have been without the “tariff tax tantrum”, but most mainstream analysts don’t see much more than 2% GDP growth over the long term for the U.S. economy.
It could be said that in America there are a few thousand modestly-socialist politicians and more than 300 million capitalist citizens. Likewise, it could be said in China and India there are a few thousand fully-socialist politicians and 3 billion capitalist citizens.
Regardless of how they vote, citizens in all three countries generally work hard to make ends meet and to build quality products… while being controlled by debt-worshipping politicians.
Chindian citizens are in the early stages of their latest empire cycle, and U.S. citizens are in the late stages of their first empire cycle. A gold-orientation of the gargantuan Chindian population essentially guarantees that gold will quickly become a mainstream asset for global investment.
That’s because there is only about 1% annual growth in mine supply while Chindian citizen wealth is growing at about 6%-8% each year. Gold demand growth mirrors citizen wealth growth.
In America, the Fed’s accommodative stance can only buy the government limited time. The rate of annual U.S. government debt growth is very similar to Chindian citizen wealth growth.
On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I’m predicting that the gold price drivers of the U.S. government debt behemoth and the Chindian wealth trade are set to collide… in this weekly chart inverse H&S neckline zone at about $1450.
That should push gold towards the $2000 area neckline zone of an even bigger inverse H&S pattern that targets the $3000 price area.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this short-term GDX chart. I’ve highlighted my guswinger.com buy and sell signals on the chart. I buy NUGT when there’s a GDX buy signal and buy DUST when there is a GDX sell signal.
This proprietary system is mechanical and investors are almost always in a trade. The current daily chart price action in GDX is boring at best and can be demoralizing, but for swing traders, almost every day is exciting! The bottom line:
During the strong season, core positions will make the most money for investors in the gold market. During the weak season (now), a solid short-term trading plan reduces negative emotion, limits drawdowns, and puts money in the bank.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Some investors may be concerned about the fourth touching of the $1288 June futures and $1280 cash market floor, but my question to them is:
Is this a floor, or is it a sponge? The gold market now is vastly different (both fundamentally and technically) than it was when the price touched the $1523 area for the fourth time in 2013. Investors should think about modest price softness on a $1280 area sponge rather than possible sharp weakness at a $1280 floor. The $1450-$1400 price zone will become a beautiful floor as the gargantuan Chindian wealth trade and U.S. government debt behemoth of doom collide!

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

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Are You Prepared?

Chinese economic growth is probably the main driver of both physical gold demand and the global bull market in stocks.
Please click here now. I’m invested in China through ETFs, bank stocks, and… gold!
With the possible exception of HSBC, most analysts in the West appear to be underestimating the resilience of a billion Chinese citizens working maniacally in the private sector.
I’ll go even further than HSBC and predict that Chinese GDP growth could re-touch the 7% area if a trade deal is announced.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The FXI-NYSE Chinese stock market ETF is breaking out of a powerful inverse H&S bottom pattern. The technical action fits with the growing GDP fundamentals, and key Chinese gold jewellery stocks are racing to fresh highs for the year.
My guswinger.com leveraged ETF swing trade service focuses on YINN-NYSE for Chinese stock market action. YINN is a triple-leveraged ETF. Its price should soar if even a fraction of the positive Chinese growth scenario laid out by HSBC and myself comes to pass.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. While gold is doing extremely well so far in the weak demand season, a trade deal and/or a Chinese GDP surge could end this weak season earlier than usual.
Most big bank analysts see gold at $1400 or higher within 12 months. That $1400 price would turn many gold miners into gargantuan cash cows.
Mining stock dividends would soar and make global money managers embrace the sector in a much more consistent way than they have in the past.
Please click here now. If Chinese growth can reach the 7% area, Indian growth should reach 8%. India’s central bank has started its own gold buy program and all the silly government attacks on the Indian gold sector have ended.
Most gold analysts look for signs of a weakening global economy to propel gold higher. In contrast, I look for signs of strength in the private sector and signs of weakness in the US government sector. Both are present now.
The U.S. government is a walking tombstone. Its debt cannot be paid. It’s a gargantuan glutton that is clearly out of control. The government and its central bank recklessly smash savers by demanding ultra-low rates and QE. It does so because its own grotesque appetite for borrowed money is insatiable.
Interestingly, Trump has just nominated gold standard enthusiast Herman Cain as a potential Fed governor. Trump says that Herman “gets it”.
Does Trump mean Herman understands that only a gold standard can end the insane growth of the U.S. government?
I think so. The current bottom line for gold is that all Chindian growth lights are green and all U.S. government debt lights are red. This is the perfect environment for creating rallies in the gold price that are sustained.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The price action of the TLT-NYSE bond market ETF supports my theme of strength in global stock markets and gold, and weakness in bonds.
Sometimes gold rallies when interest rates decline and sometimes it rallies when they rise. If there’s enough fear in either scenario, gold will rally strongly.
Gold soared in 2009 after rates were dramatically lowered with QE and fear of system collapse was rampant.
Gold soared in 1979 as rates went ballistic and fear of hyperinflation was rampant.
Libertarians are obviously eager to watch the U.S. government incinerate in a rocketing rates bond market fireball, but I think the coming swoon in bond prices will be more mundane.
Simply put, the U.S. government debt fireball lies ahead, but in the medium-term gold is likely to rally to $1400 mostly because of the fundamentals of strong Chinese growth.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this solid-looking GDX chart.
I’ve been adamant that the weak season sideways action for GDX and associated miners won’t end until there’s a Friday close of $23 or better.
Will this be the week that it happens? Well, it feels imminent and the good news for investors is that the symmetrical triangle now in play for GDX has an upside price target of about $26!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “The Golden Surge!” report. I highlight eight key gold and silver miners with similar technical patterns to GDX that can stage much bigger rallies as GDX breaks out to upside!

Stewart Thomson

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There’s a time for gold stocks to rally… and a time for consolidation and retracement. Please click here now. We have joy, we have fun, we have gold price seasonality in the sun?
To view seasonality on the daily gold chart, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
The COMEX price of gold is determined mainly by commercial bank traders and hedge funds reacting to physical market supply versus demand. Currently, mine supply is relatively constant, central banks are net buyers, and the scrap market is stable.
With supply essentially fixed, the seasonal ebb and flow of demand is mainly what moves the price.
Roughly speaking, physical market demand strengthens from August until February and it weakens from February to August.
It’s April now, so higher price enthusiasts need patience.
Events related to the “fear trade” in the West can upset the seasonality apple cart, but a U.S.-China trade deal seems imminent, there is still some time left in the U.S. business cycle’s bull run, and the Fed’s recent actions are likely to reinvigorate stock buybacks.
Unfortunately, in the short and medium term, there’s not much related to the Western fear trade that would “juice” gold ETF or COMEX contract demand enough to make up for the current seasonal physical market slackness.
Trump is a business-oriented president, and the private sector in America is quite healthy. He’s supporting that health. In contrast, the government sector (in America and most of the Western world) is a horrifying mess.
Trump, like his presidential predecessors, has lorded over a massive rise in government spending and debt. Unfortunately for Trump, he just happens to be president when the government’s ability to borrow ever-more money will soon meet a brick wall. Legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio believes the government may have only two years of “sand in the hourglass” before the demand for U.S. T-bonds fails to match the supply.
I’ve suggested the U.S. government could stagger forwards for another 3-4 years before a bond market supernova event occurs. Regardless, the bottom line is that the next financial markets meltdown is set to be a government crisis much more than a private sector crisis. The government’s dollar is like a corporation’s stock, and it will burn as its bond market burns.
I’ve also predicted that unlike the late 1930s crisis that was followed by U.S. war with Germany, Japan, and Italy, this crisis could cause a war within America, pitting the rich against the poor. It could get quite ugly, especially for citizens with no gold.
An institutional gold buying frenzy would occur in even the mildest version of this projected scenario. A collapse of the U.S. bond market would smash other Western government bond markets too.
In a government bond market crisis, all roads lead to gold!
Also, QE doesn’t work in this type of crisis, because it’s no longer a booster shot for private sector stocks, businesses, and bonds.
In 2008-2014, QE was mostly deflationary. When it’s used again, it will be used to fill a demand gap for government bonds. In that situation, QE is highly inflationary and could even become “hyperinflationary”.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. The weak demand season for gold has only been underway since February, so patience is required.
Regardless, the price action of GDX and its leading component stocks has been impressive. Most of the strong season gains are holding and the price action is essentially sideways now.
More “bump and grind” trading is expected but the gold mining stocks market is generally very healthy.
How should investors deal with the weak demand season for gold in regards to GDX and gold stocks in general? Well, for one possible solution, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this hourly bars swing trades chart for GDX.
My guswinger.com trade alert service can help investors ease the weak season doldrums. I use triple-leveraged ETFs like NUGT, JNUG, DUST, & JDST… so nobody gets bored! I also take all the trades myself, but only after I send them by cell phone text and email to all the happy subscribers.
I also recommend items like bitcoin (which is up about 15% this morning), and I’m introducing bond market trades for my main gracelandupdates.com newsletter. That’s partly to get everyone ready for the coming U.S. government bond market supernova explosion. It’s also to help investors understand the more mundane bond market price drivers so they get modestly and consistently richer while waiting for “the big bang”.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. TLT-NYSE is a bond market ETF. The next signal will be a sell, which means interest rates will rise in the short term. That’s likely because institutional investors see a U.S.-China trade deal as imminent, and so they are moving money from bonds to stocks.
Because investors are taking more risk now, fear trade demand for gold is softening at a time when love trade demand is seasonally soft. This is just short-term noise. A bond market supernova event lies ahead. During normal times, higher rates are usually mildly negative for gold. During extraordinary times featuring a U.S. government bond market wipeout, rates soar but an institutional buying frenzy means that gold market investors need to prepare for vastly higher prices!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Riding The Range!” GDXJ and SILJ report. I highlight how to play the weak season range for these ETFs and for six exciting junior miners!

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Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this long-term gold chart. Fundamental and technical analysis are both strongly supporting gold’s rally towards the key $1400 area.
Having said that, COMEX price action mainly reflects action in the physical market and this is the weak season for gold.
Investors need patience. News in the West that “should” push gold $100/ounce higher is in play, but modest physical market demand in China and India means that rallies are modest.
Please click here now. If this news was happening during the Chinese New Year Jan-Feb peak physical demand time frame, gold would be staging a “barn burner” rally.
Instead, it’s contained in a $1280-$1350 consolidation range.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart.
The bottom line: Gold is on a journey to the $1400-$1420 price zone, but it’s not a rocket ride. It’s more of what I call a “bull era plod”.
The other fact to keep in mind is that the inversion of the US yield curve with artificially low rates isn’t suggesting that American economic growth is “cratering”.
Growth is slowing down, but it’s too early to predict that a recession is imminent. A US-China trade deal could provide some medium-term support for stock markets without being negative for gold.
Central bank gold accumulation is another positive factor, but it’s currently only about 50-60 tons a month. In the weak season Chindian demand often drops from 200+ tons a month to about 60-80.
Central bank and Western fear trade demand is decent, but isn’t making up for the shortfall caused by the drop in Chindian demand. That’s being reflected in commercial trader action on the COMEX.
Gold is rallying strongly from the $1280 zone because Chindian dealers are buyers there. They are fading their buying in the $1310-$1320 area, leaving Western money managers to do the heavy lifting. That’s no easy task with Chindia quiet.
To put it simply, Western financial news is gold-supportive in content, but until Chindian buying resumes in size gold will be more of a trader’s market than the start of a “huge bull run”.
The good news is that $1280-$1350 gold is a great price for the miners, and many are surging to one fresh high after another!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GDX chart.
I’ve suggested that a Friday close of $23 or higher for GDX and $14 for Barrick (GOLD-NYSE) would open the door to a much more significant rally for most gold and silver mining stocks.
GDX closed above $23 yesterday and Barrick closed above $14. It’s not Friday yet, but this is a very positive sign!
I don’t expect gold to move above $1350 until Chindian demand begins to strengthen in August… unless there’s a major economic shock in the West.
Having said that, when it does rise to $1400-$1420, I expect a massive bull run to occur in the miners.
The logic for this outlook is that most analysts have underestimated the profits that miners will make at $1400+, and global stock markets are likely to swoon again in the Aug-Oct crash season.
In Sept 2018, gold was in the $1200 range. If it is in the $1400 area in Sept 2019 with stock markets swooning, institutional money managers could engage in a gold stock buying frenzy!
A September rate cut from the Fed to calm the panic would likely enhance the frenzy.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this silver stock ETF chart.
Note the recent rise of the key TRIX indicator above the zero line. That’s the sign of a technically healthy market. A sustained bull run for silver stocks would be signalled by a Friday SIL-NYSE close above $30!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Barrick & Agnico Lead The Juniors Higher!” report. I highlight money making tactics for Barrick, Agnico, and key juniors that are joining the upside fun!

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1. The latest U.S. central bank announcement was a win-win for gold.

2. If the Fed surprised analysts and hiked rates, the stock market probably crashes, and gold stocks rally strongly.

3. As expected, the Fed did nothing and gold stocks outperformed.

4. It’s a clear win-win situation for gold bugs around the world.

5. I’m adamant that the U.S. stock market would already look somewhat akin to the 1929 bear market if the Fed had not killed its “ QT on auto pilot ” and “ rates are years away from being normalized ” statements.

6. In contrast, there was/is no QE in China or India. In addition, interest rates are twice as high in China as America, and three times as high in India.

7. The bottom line: Stock markets are propelled significantly higher or lower by central bank policy. Chinese and Indian central banks have vastly more long-term ability to “ juice ” their stock markets higher than the Fed does.

8. This leaves aside the “minor detail” that there are three billion citizens in Chindia. The Chindian population absolutely dwarfs the U.S. population. The citizens are gold-oriented workaholics growing their economy at 6%-7% annually.

9. Most incredible of all: This growth is happening against the background of a quasi-communist government in China and a mafia-like government in India.

10. What happens as those governments transition to the more business-friendly type of government that exists in America? Answer: Vastly more wealth and vastly more demand for gold!

11. Please click here now: [ https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019mar19bankgold1.png ] The almost universal enthusiasm for gold amongst elite bank analysts around the world right now is highly impressive.

12. Their support for gold on this $70/ounce pullback has been unwavering and Commerzbank analysts appear to be predicting that a surge to the $1700 price zone is imminent!

13. These heavyweight bank analysts influence the decision-making process of institutional money managers. They also affect mainstream financial media. Gold is gaining news coverage as an asset class to be respected.

14. Please click here now: [ https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019mar19bankgold2.png ] Bank America’s elite gold market analysts note the steady progress being made with global de-dollarization.

15. The bulk of the action taking place on that front involves fresh and steady allocation to gold by central banks. India’s savvy central bank was a massive buyer near the 2009 lows and now it appears to be committing to a monthly buy program.

16. For gold price forecasting, retail investor sentiment is becoming less important than it was in the past. What matters now is central bank sentiment and bank analyst sentiment. The phrase that describes that sentiment best is: Solid as a golden rock!

17. Please click here now: [ https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019mar19gold1.png ] Double-click to enlarge. As relentless Chindian demand growth, limited mine supply growth, and central bank de-dollarization all take the centre stage of price discovery in the eyes of the elite bank analysts, negative technical formations like this H&S top will continue be voided, and gold’s uptrend will continue.

18. As gold pulled back to the $1280 I suggested that could be the new floor for the price. The powerful rally in the rupee taking place against the dollar now is triggering a surge in Indian dealer demand. In turn, that’s causing powerful commercial bank traders to cover short positions.

19. Trump is working hard to reverse the damage to global stock markets that his tariffs caused and the Fed has become highly supportive with its statements and actions. I see no reason for that to change with this week’s FOMC policy announcement and Trump is going to intensify his efforts to get a trade deal that is friendly to stock markets.

20. I’m “ long and strong ” the U.S. stock market, the Indian stock market, the Chinese stock market, and the entire precious metals sector… with a wide array of investment vehicles.

21. Please click here now: [ https://gracelandjuniors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019mar19gdx.png ] Double-click to enlarge this GDX daily chart. While I’m long DUST-NYSE at my [http://www.guswinger.com/ ] swing trade service, that’s a mechanical short-term system designed to produce solid profits during wild volatility events like the Fed meet.

22. In the big picture, volume is soft on down days for most gold stocks. Volume is rising as the price rises. That’s bullish. Most importantly, the GDX price action can be themed as… “ solid” . As gold rallied to $1350, I predicted that many individual miners would keep rallying as gold pulled back.

23. A big feature of the current $70/ounce gold price consolidation has been the continued rally of many miners . A rise in gold to the $1520 area would turn these miners into cash cows, and a further rally to Commerzbank’s $1700 predicted price should cause an institutional feeding frenzy!

24. Gold is steadily reclaiming its title as “ ultimate asset ”, which means it rises in good times and bad. If global stock markets rise, gold rises. If global stock markets crash, gold rises. Owning gold is now the “ ultimate no-brainer ” tactic for central banks and heavyweight bank analysts. Let’s hope that sentiment envelops 100% of the Western gold community… right here, right now!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Seniors!” report. I highlight key senior gold stocks with incredible upside potential that are trading at under $10/share. It’s essentially an opportunity to buy senior producers at junior prices! I include key buy and sell zones for each great stock.

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Cheers

Stewart Thomson

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With little fanfare, gold is staging a nice consolidation in the $1280-$1350 price zone.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. A breakout from this $70 trading range would usher in a fresh target of $1400 and perhaps $1420.
Note the superb position of the 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart.
Its great positioning is just one of many reasons why $1280 could be the launch pad for the next significant rally.
Fundamentals make charts, and there are no long-term fundamentals more bullish for gold than the relentless growth of Chindian demand versus limited global mine supply growth.
On that note, please click here now. Most American investors are wasting time begging the U.S. stock market to go higher, while the nation’s top institutional analysts are wisely focused on the incredibly bullish developments taking place in the Asian markets.
Chinese government stimulus, rising demand for copper, and rising corporate earnings across Asia are all creating a stock market rally that could become a serious barn burner.
That’s good news for physical market gold demand, which is good news for Western gold stock investors!
Please click here now. The U.S. stock market situation is also positive for gold.
Most U.S. stocks would have already melted far below their December lows if the Fed had not changed course so suddenly on rate hikes and quantitative tightening.
U.S. first quarter GDP and earnings growth are likely abysmal, even after a major corporate tax cut, tariffs, ultra-low interest rates, and a mountain of stock market buybacks.
Morgan Stanley analysts believe U.S. corporate earnings growth will fall to 1% in 2019 and I’ll suggest it would be negative if not for the stock market buybacks.
Without the Fed’s backstop and the corporate buybacks, the U.S. stock market would probably be in free-fall right now.
GDP growth in China is 6%+ and in India it is 7%+. The bottom line: Weakening growth in the West and solid growth in Asia is a win-win situation for gold.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this FXI-NYSE chart.
The Chinese stock market just completed a textbook pullback to the neckline of a double bottom pattern after an upside breakout.
With heavyweights like Morgan Stanley backing the rally, the Chinese stock market is likely headed much higher, and Asian investors will celebrate the upside action by purchasing gold.
It’s mathematics as simple as 1+1=2.
Central bank buying is another important factor for gold demand… and it’s accelerating.
Please click here now. China’s central bank has resumed its monthly gold buying, and now India’s central bank seems to be buying consistently too!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart.
The bounce from the $21.50 support zone feels “perky”.
Most intermediate and senior miners have made significant progress in cutting their AISC (all-in sustaining costs).
A rally in bullion to above $1400 would turn many of these miners into “cash cows” and open the door to sustained institutional interest in the sector. That’s the main reason why I’m adamant that the entire $23 – $18 price zone for GDX is such an important buying area for investors!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Gold Portfolio With Silver Lining!” report. I highlight an ideal mix of gold and silver stocks for investors to profit as the gold price rally resumes!

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Stewart Thomson

March 13, 2019

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The U.S. stock market and bullion swooned yesterday, but the GDX gold stocks ETF was up!
Gold stocks continue to perform impressively. Rallies look impulsive and corrections feel solid.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Gold has pulled back by about 30% after staging an enormous $170/ounce rally.
In the scenario shown on this chart, gold could trade down to the 50% retracement area and support zone at $1250-$1260.
From there, the rally would resume and gold should surge to my next $1400 target zone.
The next U.S. jobs report is on Friday, and that report is likely to help indicate whether gold range trades or pulls back to $1260 or so before that rally to $1400 takes place.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. My alternative scenario has the current area as the correction low, and a range trade between $1275 and $1350 would occur over the next few months.
Even though gold has corrected by about $70 from the $1350 zone, some individual miners have barely corrected at all. This is another sign of a very healthy market.
Over the weekend, some readers told me they were worried that Goldman Sachs’ influential analysts may be about to lower their $1425 gold price target back down to $1050.
With thanks to the forexLive team, I’d like to put that worry to rest. For the good news, please click here now. Not only are Goldman’s analysts still positive about gold…
They are raising their target prices!
The Western gold community can relax and enjoy this price pullback because there’s nothing to fear and everything is fundamentally solid.
Please click here now. There’s an important double bottom pattern in play on this FXI-NYSE Chinese stock market chart.
I’ll also note that it closed higher yesterday while the American Dow fell hard. Tariffs progress, government stimulus, and bigger weighting in international indexes should push the FXI higher.
In turn, that’s going to put Chinese citizens in a positive mood and make them eager to buy more gold.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this superb SIL silver stocks ETF chart.
All silver stock enthusiasts should feel confident and happy when looking at this chart. That’s because the slope of the current uptrend is solid and sustainable.
Violent rallies like the one in 2016 are not sustainable. They cause a lot of investor price chasing as they peak and tend to end very badly.
The fundamentals of this market are much different from 2016. That’s why key research analysts at firms like Goldman are so positive on gold. Where gold goes, silver tends to follow.
Silver can outperform gold without leading it. What I mean by that statement is that gold can be the first metal to make a new intermediate trend high, but the percentage gains for that move are bigger for silver. When silver leads gold, the market tends to be more speculative and that’s not healthy.
Gains that are sustained come from a market where gold leads the trending action, and that’s what is happening now.
Please click here now. Monster bank BMO says that the combination of falling mine supply and rising jewellery demand will provide a “tailwind” for the price of gold, propelling it higher into 2021.
Some bank analysts feel mine supply will decline, some see it static, and some see it rising, but only slightly, but almost all of them see demand bigger than supply. Government debt and de-dollarization are likely to become much more significant drivers of demand by 2021 than they are now. Both the fear trade and the love trade should be solid tailwinds for gold in the years ahead.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. GDX bounced nicely off the $21.50 support zone yesterday. More gyration is likely, but I think GDX will rise above $24 before gold moves over $1350. This market is solid. Gold stocks look like tourists in a bus climbing up a mountain of fiat at a leisurely pace. My suggestion: Enjoy the ride!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my “Golden Ten Baggers!” report. I highlight key gold stocks trading under $10 that are poised for ten bagger gains as gold moves to $1400! I include buy and sell tactics to help investors manage the action professionally!

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The biggest driver of major markets right now is the possibility of a U.S.-China trade deal.
On that note, please click here now. The U.S. government’s wild launch of tariff taxes caused global markets to swoon in the first half of 2018. Gold and the Chinese stock market were hurt more than a lot of other markets.
Gold has done well with QE, QT, falling rates, and rising rates, but tariff taxes hurt the Chinese economy. That put a damper on the growth of Chinese gold demand.
The Chinese stock market is now rallying in anticipation of a trade deal, but even if there is no deal (unlikely), the Chinese government has embarked on a significant stimulus program.
U.S. money managers are getting more interested in the Chinese stock market because of that stimulus. A trade deal that includes more intellectual property protection would create a huge U.S. stock market rally. More importantly, it would create a huge rally in the Chinese market and that would increase gold demand significantly.
If the Fed hikes or signals that QT is going back to auto pilot mode, institutional money managers will buy gold because of growing concerns about the U.S. government’s ability to finance itself, and because the Fed’s move would hurt low interest rate loans for U.S. stock market buybacks. A situation like September 2018 would occur, with gold rallying and stock markets tanking.
On the other hand, a pause in hikes and an earlier-than-expected end to QT is also viewed as good news for gold.
Additionally, even without a trade deal, China’s economy is becoming consumer-oriented, and that means more imports and less exports. In turn, that means less need for the purchase of U.S. government debt.
A trade deal would speed up this process.
The U.S. government’s ability to finance itself without foreign government purchases of its bonds is becoming a significant concern for powerful money managers like Larry Fink of Blackrock.
The bottom line: A trade deal is good for stock markets and gold, but it likely flips the U.S. government’s financial situation out of the fry pan… and into the fire!
Clearly, the current global-macro situation is extremely positive for gold. What about the technical situation? For the answer to that question, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart.
It really doesn’t matter whether gold makes a beeline for my new $1400 target immediately, or whether there’s a “pitstop” in the $1300-$1280 support zone.
It doesn’t matter because the big picture fundamentals and technicals are outrageously positive, so there’s no need for fear amongst investors.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The higher-price implications of the technical action on this weekly gold chart are obvious. The $1000/ounce price zone is major support, $2000 is resistance, and $3000 is the target price!
The world’s need for dollars is declining, for a multitude of reasons. Please click here now. Whether it’s caused by the simple but gargantuan growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, or the U.S. government’s “My way or the highway” approach to sanctioning Russia, bank and government entities around the world are steadily distancing themselves from the dollar.
Gold is the best way for individuals, banks, and governments to do that. The buy programs of emerging central banks are only in their infancy, and the tonnage being bought is consistently rising.
As somebody who aggressively bought the U.S. stock market right into the October 2008-March 2009 lows, I can assure the Western gold community that there is no event to fear in the current gold market. The market is rock-solid.
The rise of the Eastern economies is a titanic force that is creating both de-dollarization and demand growth for gold. Citizens of the East view gold as the best investment asset from both a risk and reward perspective. Their view is now being adopted by more and more Western money managers. In time (and not much time), this positive view of gold will also be the view of the average American citizen. Gold bashers like Warren Buffett prospered in the fiat era, but that era is waning fast. A new bull era is being born and all roads lead to gold.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this interesting GDX chart. Merger-mania is underway in the gold and silver mining stocks and there’s “bull flag mania” on the daily GDX chart!
Larger gold mining entities are required to service the global demand growth for gold. I’ve predicted that Chinese miners, banks, and industrial companies will ultimately be involved in mergers with Western mining companies.
In the coming years, gold miners could become as important as the giant base metal miners.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s another look at the GDX daily chart, with the support zones highlighted. Mining stock enthusiasts should be buyers of their favourite miners any time GDX trades at a support zone.
Gold stock investors should understand that the current market is not like the early 2000s, 2007, or 2016. This is a market like the 1970s, and the upside fun… has only just begun!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Gold Stocks Merger Mania!” report. I highlight ten fabulous gold miners that are ripe to be taken over, with key buy and sell points for each stock! Email me today, and I’ll send it to you today!

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As U.S. markets re-open after the holiday, the world’s “queen of assets” continues her glorious ascent to higher prices. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this magnificent short term gold chart.
The rise above $1332 ushers in my new short-term target: $1355!
Please click here now. Gold is well on its way to becoming a mainstream asset like stocks and bonds.
The reason for that is the “citizen wealth effect” created by the relentless rise of China and India. These gold-oriented nations are well on their way to becoming the most gargantuan economic empires in the history of the world.
It’s simple mathematics: There are eight Chindians for every American, and about half of the Chindians are under the age of 35.
It’s an unstoppable force that I refer to as, “The Gold Bull Era”.
In the West, gold has been traditionally bought only when major stock, bond, currency, and real estate markets get into trouble.
In contrast, Chindian citizens view gold as the “ultimate asset”, meaning they buy it in both good times and bad.
This view is beginning to gain acceptance amongst Western analysts and money managers and I’m predicting it will continue to do so for many decades.
Gold’s role as ultimate asset was showcased in the September-December period when it rose while U.S. stock markets tumbled.
Most gold bugs were stunned by the incredible price action, and even more stunned as the GDX gold stocks ETF soared too!
Now, gold is rallying while U.S. stock markets rise, and most analysts are again somewhat shocked as their attempted top calls for gold fail repeatedly.
This type of “win-win” price action is unique to gold and I’ll boldly state that it is essentially here to stay!
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. On this daily chart, gold looks like a freight train that cannot be stopped.
From a big picture technical perspective, this type of daily chart action is expected and normal. To understand why I say that, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge what I consider to be the greatest weekly chart in the history of markets.
Gold appears to be rallying from the final right shoulder in a multi-shouldered inverse H&S bull continuation pattern. Incredibly, that pattern itself appears to be just the head of a much more gargantuan pattern with a target price of $3000!
In this situation, the current “freight train” technical action being showcased by gold on the daily chart is perfectly normal.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key GDX daily chart. A spectacular bull flag breakout occurred on Friday.
In pre-market action this morning, the price is gapping higher.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s another look at GDX on a short-term chart.
With the bull flag breakout now in play, stop-loss enthusiasts can now raise their protective profit-locks from $20.10 to $21.75.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this silver stocks ETF chart.
A classic staircase chart pattern is developing. Traders can raise protective stop-loss orders from $24 to $26.
I recommend that all investors carry some silver and associated miners in their portfolios and the $26 stop-loss level for SIL-NYSE allows investors to board this precious metals “freight train” with minimal risk and maximum potential reward!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Golden Cogs In The Bull Era Wheel!” report. I highlight six of the hottest mining stocks in the world that are poised to lead the sector in 2019, with pinpoint tactics to help traders and investors get richer!

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Are You Prepared?

Is the latest tiny price correction in gold already done?
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. The uptrend looks majestic, and especially so in the face of the dollar’s strength against the euro and the yen.
Whether gold rallies from the current $1306 support zone or from $1280 is not important. What’s important is the overall strength of the market, both fundamentally and technically.
A staircase uptrend pattern (in place now for gold) is an indication of a very healthy market.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The big technical picture for gold is also glorious!
On the fundamentals front, the European economy is rolling over faster than America’s is right now. This situation is positive for gold. Europeans are nervous, especially in Germany, and they are steadily putting money into gold and physical gold ETFs.
The dollar is strong against the yen because of the rally in global stock markets. That rally is happening in the face of fading U.S. corporate earnings because of the actions of the U.S. central bank.
Stock markets initially tend to rally as the U.S. business cycle peaks and the Fed stops raising rates, but institutional investors soon become concerned that the Fed’s about-face is related to more serious concerns about the economy. Value players have sold out and many money managers are now in a “sell the rallies” mindset rather than “buy the dips”.
Please click here now. The Fed’s change of stance is good news for gold but not so good news for the stock market (except in the very short term). Rates have barely risen off the floor despite this being one of the longest economic upcycles in the history of America.
The upcycle was long in terms of time but horrifying in terms of actual growth. Arguably, the biggest real economy growth has been in the part-time jobs market. It’s also plausible that there would not have been any growth at all without the massive increase in government debt.
The democrats have control of the House now and some influential players want to tie stock market buybacks to wage increases. That’s clearly inflationary and perhaps much more so than most analysts realize. Even if the legislation doesn’t get passed, I believe it will be passed “in spirit.”
Key democrats also support the UBI (universal basic income) and free medical care. I’ve dubbed UBI the common man’s QE. These programs are all inflationary and are being proposed as the Fed changes its stance. That’s a “done deal” recipe for major stagflation over the long term.
In the current big picture, I’ve suggested that rate hikes, QT, QE, and rate cuts are all win-win for gold. Rate hikes put pressure on the stock buyback programs and help push the QE money ball in the commercial banking system. That’s inflationary.
Rate hikes also put pressure on the U.S. government’s ability to finance itself. That’s positive for gold.
Rate cuts now reduce the carry cost for gold and boost the safe haven trade as investors flee stock markets as the fear of recession grows. That’s also positive for gold.
Please click here now. Kudos to Congressman Mooney for doing the right thing. I urge all members of the U.S. gold community to call their congressional reps and demand they back Mooney’s proposed legislation.
I’ve predicted that with China and India leading the way, gold will become an “approved and respected” mainstream asset in the years ahead, just like stocks and bonds. If Mooney gets serious support, it can happen even faster than I’ve predicted.
Please click here now. As noted, the big picture for gold is glorious… both technically and fundamentally.
Please click here now. Respected mainstream firm Bernstein has obviously joined “Team Gold”. They highlight the ongoing drop in America’s share of global GDP. Nothing Trump is doing will reverse that drop because it’s related to the West’s horrifying population demographics.
The current U.S. government plan to reverse its insane debt growth with tariff taxes, a single corporate tax cut, a few regulatory red tape chops, no more rate hikes, and a border wall… is like trying to stop Niagara Falls by throwing a few popsicle sticks into the water.
The temptation for the debt-worshipping U.S. government to inflate will soon be overwhelming. Clearly, elite U.S. analysts like Bernstein are already anticipating this is an imminent event.
Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GDX chart. GDX and most high-quality gold stocks soared from September-December and did so while the U.S. stock market crashed. Then GDX soared in January while the stock market rallied.
There’s now a bull flag in play and while gold looks great in this price correction, GDX looks even better. The $21.50 support zone for GDX is the equivalent of $1306 for gold, but the price hasn’t even reached that $21.50 level! There’s still a high probability that GDX blasts towards my next short-term target at $25 without even touching that support zone. That would be “outrageously bullish”.
I refer to GDX as the “Prince of Assets” and to high quality individual gold stocks as “Knights Of The Round Bull Era Table”, and with good reason; it’s a glorious time to be invested in gold and the companies that mine it! These price corrections are not painful. They are so mild (and even enjoyable) that it’s almost ridiculous. The good news is that this theme is now poised to continue… for a very long time!

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Stewart Thomson

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