Key Insights

• The projected fair value for BHP Group is AU$54.45 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• BHP Group is estimated to be 27% undervalued based on current share price of AU$39.54

• Analyst price target for BHP is US$44.32 which is 19% below our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$7.82b	US$8.09b	US$7.28b	US$9.58b	US$9.80b	US$10.0b	US$10.3b	US$10.5b	US$10.8b	US$11.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x9	Analyst x9	Analyst x8	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 2.30%	Est @ 2.43%	Est @ 2.52%	Est @ 2.59%	Est @ 2.63%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%	US$7.3k	US$7.0k	US$5.8k	US$7.1k	US$6.8k	US$6.4k	US$6.1k	US$5.8k	US$5.6k	US$5.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$63b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$11b× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.7%) = US$231b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$231b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= US$110b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$173b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$39.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

ASX:BHP Discounted Cash Flow March 24th 2025Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at BHP Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.140. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

See our latest analysis for BHP Group

SWOT Analysis for BHP Group

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.

Opportunity

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For BHP Group, there are three essential items you should assess:

Risks: Be aware that BHP Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant…

Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for BHP's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.