Investing.com — Goldman Sachs initiated research coverage on U.S. agricultural input stocks, favoring defensive and value plays in a weakening agricultural macro environment. “We believe the ag macro is still in the process of settling lower from the peak caused by the Russia/Ukraine War,” analyst at Goldman Sachs said. The brokerage issued "Buy" ratings on Corteva (NYSE:CTVA), FMC Corp (NYSE:FMC), and Mosaic, while assigning a "Neutral" rating to CF Industries (NYSE:CF) and a "Sell" rating to Nutrien (NYSE:NTR).

Goldman noted that the agricultural sector is still normalizing from the price surge caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, with corn, a key proxy, expected to stabilize in the $3-$4 per bushel range, similar to levels seen from 2014 to 2020. While a stronger-than-expected spring 2025 planting season could provide near-term support, the firm expects the downward trend to resume later in the year.

Among agricultural inputs, seeds remain the most resilient business in a weaker commodity cycle, according to Goldman. The firm sees strong pricing power and cost advantages in Corteva’s North American seed business, which is undergoing a long-term competitive reset.

Agricultural chemicals also offer defensive qualities as farmers prioritize pest control, though year-to-year volatility remains a factor. Goldman expects FMC to better manage inventory destocking and new product launches, countering recent market concerns.

For fertilizers, Goldman favors phosphate exposure through Mosaic over nitrogen and potash, citing strong demand from battery production. The firm warned that U.S. tariffs and new supply from Canada’s Jansen mine could pressure potash prices starting in 2026.

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