Shares of The Mosaic (MOS) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 30.5% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $42.17 in the previous session. The Mosaic has gained 82.2% since the start of the year compared to the 6.6% move for the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the 36.6% return for the Zacks Fertilizers industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 2, 2021, Mosaic reported EPS of $1.17 versus consensus estimate of $1.01.
For the current fiscal year, Mosaic is expected to post earnings of $4.93 per share on $12.54 billion in revenues. This represents a 480% change in EPS on a 44.5% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $4.95 per share on $12.48 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 0.43% and -0.56%, respectively.
Mosaic may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Mosaic has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 8.5X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 12.8X versus its peer group's average of 13.5X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 1.21. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Mosaic currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Mosaic meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Mosaic shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.
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